Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Wage growth turned negative in April at the height of efforts to contain the virus, and we expect wages to fall further over the coming months. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) The upward revision to Q1 GDP displayed in the revised estimate is cold comfort given that output is plummeting this quarter. We expect GDP to fall by another 9% this quarter. 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The huge fall in industrial production and retail sales in April support our below-consensus forecast that the economy will contract by 12% q/q this quarter. The unemployment rate is also set to... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Headline inflation turned negative in April for the first time since 2016 adjusting for the impact of October’s sales tax hike. We expect it to weaken further over the coming months as services and... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (May) The small pick-up in the composite PMI in May suggests that activity is no longer collapsing as dramatically as it was in April, but the survey doesn’t point to a rebound in output yet. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Exports plunged in April and are set to continue falling sharply for a while yet with economic activity in Japan’s main trading partners remaining extremely depressed. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) Machinery orders held up surprisingly well in March but we already know from the national accounts that business investment was sputtering at the end of Q1 with much darker skies awaiting in Q2. 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The fall in output in the first quarter suggests the spread of the virus had already dealt a significant blow to economic activity in March with much worse to come in Q2. A double-digit fall in GDP is... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) The further fall in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in April underlines that consumption will be extremely weak across Q2. But while all components fell to new depths, this should mark the trough... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) Wage growth slowed sharply in March and with the unemployment rate set to rise considerably over the coming months we think it will turn deeply negative before long. 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Consumer confidence sank to a record low in April. That lends further credence to the view that a consumption-led plunge in economic activity is underway this quarter. We are forecasting a 12% q/q... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Mar.) While both industrial output and retail sales held up a little better than expected in March, they still fell sharply. And with efforts to contain the virus having been stepped up significantly in... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The unemployment rate rose in March and it’s set to spike much higher over the coming months. 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Headline inflation was unchanged in March, but we suspect this may be the last positive reading for a while yet. Corona containment and the prior plunge in oil prices should translate into inflation... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Apr.) The slump in the composite PMI to a record-low in April points to GDP falling by at least 7% in Q2, but we think the survey is understating the severity of the downturn. 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) Exports fell sharply in March and are set to plummet this quarter as economic activity in most of Japan’s major trading partners has collapsed. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
