Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Nov. 2020) While export values edged down again in November, they should rise above pre-virus levels. That said, due to the weakness in services exports, overall exports won’t return to pre-virus levels until... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q4 2020) The sharp rebound in the Q4 Tankan supports our view that the economy will rebound relatively swiftly from the dislocation caused by the pandemic. And while firms’ capital spending plans point to... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Oct. 2020) The surge in machinery orders in October supports our view that non-residential investment began to recover this quarter. We expect them to rebound further over the coming months. 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) The drop in the Economy Watchers Survey in November still leaves it consistent with solid growth in consumer spending. As such, the survey is consistent with our view that the third wave will slow... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Oct.) & GDP (Rev. Q3 2020) The sizeable upward revision to Q3 GDP and the sharp rise in “core” household spending in October support our view that Japan’s economy will recover from the pandemic faster than the consensus expects... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Oct.) & Capex (Q3 2020) While the unemployment rate rose in October, with the job-to-applicant ratio edging up, it’s unlikely to rise much further. Meanwhile, capital spending data suggest that business investment may have... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct.) Retail sales rose in October, but as both values and volumes are now above pre-virus levels they’re unlikely to rise much further and could edge down amidst the third wave. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov.) While the decline in the composite PMI could be an early sign that the third wave is resulting in a renewed drop in activity, the survey still points to a further rebound in industrial output and... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 2020) Headline inflation fell sharpy in October due largely to last year’s sales tax hike dropping out of the annual comparison, and we think it weaken slightly further before recovering early next year. 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Oct. 2020) Although export volumes returned to pre-virus levels in October, import volumes bounced back more strongly. That supports our view that the boost to growth from net trade will now fade. 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q3 2020 Preliminary) Output rose sharply in the third quarter and should recover further this quarter provided the third wave of coronavirus infections doesn’t spiral out of control. 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Sep.) Machinery orders fell in September and we expect non-residential investment to have weakened last quarter and to be flat across Q4. Further ahead, we think business investment will be weak link in the... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The further surge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in October suggests that Q4 could surprise to the upside. However, further ahead the recovery will slow as the economy gets closer to pre-virus... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Sep.) Wage growth improved in September and should recover further over the coming months as overtime hours continue to rebound – besides a hit from a fall in end-of-year bonus payments. Meanwhile, the rise... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep.) The strong rise in industrial production in September is consistent with our view that Japan’s economy will rebound faster than most anticipate. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was unchanged in... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Retail sales were broadly unchanged in September, remaining a smidge below pre-virus levels in volumes terms. That’s consistent with our view that consumption rebounded strongly last quarter, although... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
