Global Markets Update Road ahead for automakers’ shares likely to remain bumpy We don’t think that the recent outperformance of automakers’ equities will continue, even if the global economy starts to recover and equity markets recoup more of their coronavirus-induced losses. 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Equities in LatAm and EMEA may soon start outperforming Even though some economies in Latin America and EMEA are still struggling to contain coronavirus outbreaks and are likely to recover only slowly afterwards, we doubt that their equities will continue... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update BTP-Bund spread still likely to narrow this year While we remain of the view that the ECB will eventually step up to the plate and increase its purchases of government bonds, concerns about Italy’s debt sustainability and its commitment to the euro... 1st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Bank equities may be on the road to nowhere We suspect that banks’ share prices will rebound a bit from here, after falling a long way. Nonetheless, we don’t think that banks will outperform other sectors significantly, or for long, even if the... 23rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EM currency recovery unlikely to match 2009-10 We continue to think that most EM currencies will end the year higher than their current levels, even if they face further turbulence. But we don’t expect them to recover as strongly as they did after... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect only a small rebound in safe bond yields If, as we expect, the global economy starts to recover in the second half of the year, the yields of core government bonds are likely to rebound a bit further. But we think that weak inflation and... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Falling EPS shouldn’t stop EM equities from rebounding We think that the earnings of firms in the MSCI EM Index will fall sharply this year as the coronavirus pandemic reduces world trade by a fifth and commodity prices only recover slightly. But with... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM ex-Asia equity valuations starting to look attractive Although the valuation of the overall MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is not unusually low, EM equities outside Asia and in some “cyclical” sectors now appear quite attractively valued by past... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Hit to corporate earnings could be bigger than in GFC Although analysts’ expectations for corporate earnings have been revised down quite significantly since the coronavirus began to spread around the world, stock prices suggest that investors are braced... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update ECB likely to drive peripheral spreads lower this year We forecast that the credit spreads of euro-zone peripheral bonds will fall back further this year and remain low in 2021 thanks to unwavering support from the ECB. But public finances will be... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US equities likely to rebound before recession ends While the coronavirus epidemic will probably weigh on the US economy much beyond the end of this year, we suspect that the S&P 500 will start recovering in the second half of 2020. 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM currencies likely to rebound, but risks remain high While the worst may be yet to come for emerging market currencies, we expect that most will end this year stronger than they are now. 1st April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Lower equity valuations not a source of comfort In our view, global equities are not as “cheap” as the recent falls in price/earnings ratios seem to suggest. That is because earnings expectations are likely to be revised down much further as the... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to remain strong until pandemic peaks While we think that most currencies will eventually regain much of the ground that they have recently lost to the US dollar, we don’t expect that process to start until the pandemic has clearly passed... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the moves in commodity currencies The slump in the prices of commodities has hit hard the currencies of the countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. But if we are right and commodity prices eventually recover as the... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Revisiting our forecasts for equities Our view remains that, despite policymakers’ best efforts, a sustained turnaround in equity markets will only come once the virus starts to fade. That hasn’t happened yet. So, we suspect that they... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
