Global Markets Update Revising up our forecasts for Indian equities We have revised up our forecasts for India’s Sensex equity index following the corporate tax reform there. And more generally, we expect it to be one of the best performers among EM stock markets over... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM local currency bonds likely to struggle from here The combination of a broad-based easing cycle in emerging markets and strong demand for risky assets has pushed local currency emerging market (EM) sovereign yields down sharply in 2019. However, we... 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed to stop easing soon, pushing Treasury yields up Given our view that the US economy will avoid a recession, we doubt that the Fed will deliver as many rate cuts as investors anticipate. As such, we think that Treasury yields will rise substantially... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Another oil shock would probably see the dollar rise, not fall Although the oil price has fallen back since the weekend’s attacks on production facilities in Saudi Arabia, it could surge again if there are further strikes or if tensions in the Middle East... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the ECB really to blame for euro weakness in 2019? Despite what Mr Trump’s tweet yesterday appears to suggest, we don’t think that the ECB is “trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro”. And although we expect the euro to weaken further against... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Implications of the M5S/PD coalition for Italian assets Italian assets have rallied since a new ruling coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) was formed. While we have revised our forecasts to reflect the reduced... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury yields likely to rebound as Fed disappoints Although we are revising down our once-bullish forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we think that it has fallen too far and will rebound to 1.75% by the end of 2019 and rise significantly next... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update “Dividend aristocrats” unlikely to keep outperforming We doubt that stocks that reliably pay high dividends will fare better than their peers during the rest of this year, as we think that bond yields are unlikely to fall much further and might even... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Slower growth likely to undermine bank valuations As the global economy slows, we think that expectations for bank earnings will prove too optimistic and that relatively high bank equity valuations in the US, Canada, Australia, and the Nordics are... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US yield curve points to impending stock market falls Yield curves have inverted in most advanced economies over the past couple of weeks, including in the US, Germany and the UK, sparking fears of an imminent global recession. While most advanced... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update SEK & NOK likely to continue testing all-time lows While the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone are now near the record lows they reached against the euro in 2008-09, we think that monetary policy and rising risk aversion will push them down... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Risks to the yen still lie to the upside The Japanese yen has continued to appreciate and is now close to our year-end forecast of ¥105/$. Though the drivers behind its strength may shift, we expect upward pressure on the yen to persist. 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Further downside ahead for EM currencies We think that emerging market (EM) currencies will continue to struggle over the rest of 2019 as the global economy remains weak for longer than investors anticipate, the trade war escalates further... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble probably lies ahead for Italian bonds We think that government bonds in Italy will come under pressure again in the coming months, given the brewing political crisis there and the resulting increased uncertainty over the country’s fiscal... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Bond “bubble” likely to deflate, but not burst Government bonds have rallied further in developed economies in recent weeks, fuelling speculation that they are in a bubble which will burst at some point. We disagree. Admittedly, we think that the... 9th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update S&P 500 EPS unlikely to keep outpacing “macro” profits The profits of Corporate America have shrunk during the past four years according to revised estimates recently published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). By contrast, S&P 500 operating... 5th August 2019 · 5 mins read
