Global Markets Update Politics likely to burden Spain’s assets beyond election Polls suggest that the general election in Spain this weekend will not end the political deadlock there. That is the key reason why, despite brighter growth prospects, we doubt that bonds and equities... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What QE would mean for Australia’s financial assets Against a backdrop of stubbornly-low inflation and rising unemployment, we now think that the RBA will launch quantitative easing (QE) in 2020. Here, we consider the implications for Australia’s... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Riksbank hike wouldn’t do much for embattled krona The Riksbank appears determined to raise interest rates into an economic slowdown. While higher policy rates may provide some support for the Swedish krona, we still think that it will continue to... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Greece/Italy 10-yr spread will fall further in our view The yield of 10-year government bonds in Greece is now only slightly above that of 10-year government bonds in Italy. Given Italy’s comparatively poor growth and debt dynamics and greater political... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z equities will fall by less than US equities in our view Equities in the euro-zone have outperformed those in the US since early October. While we expect this trend to continue, we think that both will fall in the rest of this year, as global growth slows... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble ahead for EM currencies We think that the recent weakness in emerging market (EM) currencies will continue during the rest of 2019, as a weaker global economy triggers a fresh bout of risk aversion. In 2020, we think that... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Brighter outlook for Norwegian krone next year While we think that there is still a bit more scope for the Norwegian krone to fall against the euro, we expect the currency to bounce back over the next couple of years, as the country’s terms of... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Corporate bonds likely to outperform in the E-Z in 2020 We expect the rally in corporate bonds in the US, UK and euro-zone to unwind a bit in the rest of 2019 as global growth slows further. Next year, we think that corporate bonds in the US and the UK... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Record-low inflation compensation unlikely to persist Though government bond yields have rebounded over the past week, inflation compensation remains near record lows in the US and the euro-zone. In our view, this is unlikely to persist, especially in... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Weak earnings might spark a sharp fall in US equities The corporate earnings season starting this week in the US could provide the trigger for the drop in the S&P 500 that we forecast to happen this year. Indeed, we think that earnings will disappoint... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM equities to fall further As the outlook for the global economy continues to worsen, we expect risky assets generally to struggle over coming months and emerging market equities to fall further. East Asian markets are likely... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Portugal/Spain spread won’t fall further in our view The yield of 10-year government bonds in Portugal has fallen below that of their counterparts in Spain this week after Portugal’s Socialist Party retained power in Sunday’s legislative elections... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update CAD resilience relative to AUD & NZD unlikely to last We expect appetite for risk and monetary policy to continue to be more important factors than commodity prices in determining the direction of the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie. With that in mind, we think... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Broad US dollar strength likely to continue for now As the outlook for the global economy grows gloomier, the US dollar is strengthening towards multi-year highs. We expect it will appreciate further as safe haven demand intensifies over coming months. 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Global factors the greatest risk to Japan’s equity market While the hike to Japan’s sales tax means its economy will probably contract in Q4, we suspect that the impact on bonds and equities there will be fairly small. However, we still think that Japan’s... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Difficult to see US earnings living up to expectations Investors’ continued optimism about corporate earnings in the US is hard to square with our view that economic growth there and in the rest of the world will remain weak. That is the key reason why we... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
