Global Markets Update We still think the future is brighter for Kiwi than Aussie While we have revised up our end-2021 forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar to reflect the strength of their recent rallies, we still think that the Kiwi... 25th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt that the BTP sell-off will continue While the yield of ten-year Italian government bonds has risen recently, we continue to expect it to fall back by end-2021 thanks to ECB support and a benign domestic and global backdrop. 22nd January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Three risks to our forecast for a weaker dollar Although several factors could conceivably support the dollar in the near term, we still think it will weaken overall this year as Fed policy remains accommodative and appetite for risk continues to... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation compensation and the outlook for Treasuries Although Treasury inflation compensation – i.e. gaps between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real yields of TIPS with comparable maturities – has risen sharply since the spring... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Chinese equities to underperform in 2021 Although Chinese equities have bounced back a bit so far in 2021, they have still underperformed those elsewhere since the news on vaccine efficacy in late 2020. We expect further underperformance... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We still expect the Fed to keep Treasury yields low Despite the jump in US Treasury yields this week following the Georgia Senate run-off election results, we continue to think that the Fed will keep them from rising much further this year. 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think the future looks bright for risky assets Risky assets have continued to rally even as the near-term economic picture has turned a bit gloomier, but we do not think this reflects excessive optimism. Indeed, we think risky assets could rally... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Renewed virus woes unlikely to boost EM Asian stocks Emerging market (EM) Asian equities have performed well compared with those in other EMs when coronavirus concerns have worsened this year, but we suspect any further deterioration in the virus... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Three key questions for financial markets in 2021 We think that most risky assets will make further gains next year as policymakers continue to anchor safe bond yields around their current levels and the US dollar weakens further. 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for real yields and the euro While the real yield differential between the US and the euro-zone has moved against the euro recently we doubt that this trend will continue. And, in any case, we think that factors other than... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM LC sovereign bonds Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that US corporate spreads will narrow further While US corporate credit spreads are now close to their pre-pandemic levels, we think that they will fall further in general as the global economy recovers with the help of vaccines. 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the dollar will fall further as risky assets gain We think that the inverse relationship between the dollar and risk appetite will remain strong over the next couple of years, against a backdrop of low and stable interest rates. We expect that the... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Real yields in the US could go lower still We expect the recent rise in US inflation compensation to continue as the economy recovers, but doubt that it will be matched by a similar increase in nominal bond yields. As such, we think real... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Five threats to our positive view of risky assets in 2021 With positive news on COVID-19 vaccines increasing the chances of a strong global economic recovery next year, risky assets have rallied over the past month. While we think the stage is set for them... 3rd December 2020 · 4 mins read
