Global Markets Update We expect UK equities to outperform in 2021 We think that UK equities will outperform their peers elsewhere this year, as some of the headwinds that they faced in 2020 fade or even act as tailwinds. 9th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Fiscal concerns key for Brazil’s sovereign bonds & real We think that concerns about the commitment of Brazil’s government to fiscal sustainability will intensify over the next two years and weigh on its sovereign bonds and the real. WEBINAR INVITE: To... 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think bond yields will stay low In our view, major central banks will generally take a more cautious approach to tightening monetary policy than they did in the past. This underpins our forecast that the yields of 10-year government... 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt Indian yields will rise any further Indian government bond yields have increased sharply since the Union Budget earlier this week but we don’t think they will rise much further, and they may even decline slightly from here. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The Biden administration and the US dollar We think that the US will return to a more traditional approach to the greenback under Joe Biden, and we anticipate that the overall effect of his economic policies will favour a weaker dollar. 3rd February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We see smaller gains ahead for EM Asian equities We think that the recent rally in emerging market (EM) Asian equities outside of China will slow substantially this year, and that they will begin to underperform other EM equities. Global State of... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think the future is brighter for Kiwi than Aussie While we have revised up our end-2021 forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar to reflect the strength of their recent rallies, we still think that the Kiwi... 25th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt that the BTP sell-off will continue While the yield of ten-year Italian government bonds has risen recently, we continue to expect it to fall back by end-2021 thanks to ECB support and a benign domestic and global backdrop. 22nd January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Three risks to our forecast for a weaker dollar Although several factors could conceivably support the dollar in the near term, we still think it will weaken overall this year as Fed policy remains accommodative and appetite for risk continues to... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation compensation and the outlook for Treasuries Although Treasury inflation compensation – i.e. gaps between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real yields of TIPS with comparable maturities – has risen sharply since the spring... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Chinese equities to underperform in 2021 Although Chinese equities have bounced back a bit so far in 2021, they have still underperformed those elsewhere since the news on vaccine efficacy in late 2020. We expect further underperformance... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We still expect the Fed to keep Treasury yields low Despite the jump in US Treasury yields this week following the Georgia Senate run-off election results, we continue to think that the Fed will keep them from rising much further this year. 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think the future looks bright for risky assets Risky assets have continued to rally even as the near-term economic picture has turned a bit gloomier, but we do not think this reflects excessive optimism. Indeed, we think risky assets could rally... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Renewed virus woes unlikely to boost EM Asian stocks Emerging market (EM) Asian equities have performed well compared with those in other EMs when coronavirus concerns have worsened this year, but we suspect any further deterioration in the virus... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Three key questions for financial markets in 2021 We think that most risky assets will make further gains next year as policymakers continue to anchor safe bond yields around their current levels and the US dollar weakens further. 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
