Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for real yields and the euro While the real yield differential between the US and the euro-zone has moved against the euro recently we doubt that this trend will continue. And, in any case, we think that factors other than... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM LC sovereign bonds Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that US corporate spreads will narrow further While US corporate credit spreads are now close to their pre-pandemic levels, we think that they will fall further in general as the global economy recovers with the help of vaccines. 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the dollar will fall further as risky assets gain We think that the inverse relationship between the dollar and risk appetite will remain strong over the next couple of years, against a backdrop of low and stable interest rates. We expect that the... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Real yields in the US could go lower still We expect the recent rise in US inflation compensation to continue as the economy recovers, but doubt that it will be matched by a similar increase in nominal bond yields. As such, we think real... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Five threats to our positive view of risky assets in 2021 With positive news on COVID-19 vaccines increasing the chances of a strong global economic recovery next year, risky assets have rallied over the past month. While we think the stage is set for them... 3rd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Bond yields unlikely to rise much despite vaccine We think that the limited reaction of developed market government bonds to positive vaccine news is a sign of things to come. While the introduction of effective vaccines should help drive a stronger... 2nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Contrast in Indian stocks and economy may continue Although India’s economy has struggled more than most in the COVID-19 pandemic, its equity market has performed relatively well lately. We expect the contrast between the economy and the equity market... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the euro to rise further against the dollar We have revised up our forecast for the euro against the US dollar, as we expect that conditions driving the euro’s appreciation will persist over the next few years despite near-term headwinds. 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Strong ¥ may not stop Japanese equities from rising further After underperforming the MSCI USA Index for most of 2020, the MSCI Japan Index has started to outperform it in recent days. Provided COVID-19 is brought under control in most major economies, we... 19th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Bonds and equities post US elections: 2016 vs. 2020 While there could still be more twists and turns to come after this week’s elections in the US, in general we expect equities there to outperform Treasuries between voting day and the end of 2022. 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Uncertain election outcome leaves markets in limbo While the final results are yet to be determined, whoever wins the US presidency probably faces continued gridlock in Congress. That may explain why the moves in markets overall so far have been... 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt the SEK will remain a G10 top performer We think that the Swedish krona will appreciate a little further against the euro and the dollar in 2021, but doubt that it will remain one of the best-performing G10 currencies, as it has been this... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Dollar may weaken further regardless of election result Although uncertainty about the US election result might temporarily support the dollar, we expect it will continue to decline over the next few years given our forecast for loose fiscal and monetary... 30th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Brazilian stocks may do well despite fiscal drama It is looking increasingly likely that the Brazilian government will violate its constitutional spending cap, or at least the spirit of it. While this could lead to some ructions in the real and... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt the 10-year Bund yield will fall further We are sticking to our forecast that the 10-year German government bond (Bund) yield will end this year at around -0.50%, even though it has recently fallen through this level following a renewed... 22nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
