Global Markets Update We don’t expect the rise in real yields to continue Even if nominal government bond yields kept rising this year, we suspect that this would be driven by rising inflation compensation rather than real yields, in contrast with the past couple of weeks. 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Why we think the rally in sterling will continue The pound has performed better than all other G10 currencies so far in 2021 (see Chart 1), rising from $1.36 at the start of January to almost a three-year high of $1.41 now. We expect the strength of... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM currency appreciation to moderate While we expect that EM currencies in general will rise further this year due to strong appetite for risk and a recovering global economy, we think several headwinds will limit their appreciation. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update A fresh look at equity market performance since vaccines We think that the positive equity market rotation that accompanied November’s vaccine announcements will resume before long if, as we expect, vaccines allow restrictions on activity to be lifted later... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update 10-year Treasury yield may rise a bit further With a large fiscal stimulus package looking increasingly probable in the US, and the Fed unlikely to push back on higher inflation expectations, we think the yield of 10-year US Treasuries may rise a... 12th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect UK equities to outperform in 2021 We think that UK equities will outperform their peers elsewhere this year, as some of the headwinds that they faced in 2020 fade or even act as tailwinds. 9th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Fiscal concerns key for Brazil’s sovereign bonds & real We think that concerns about the commitment of Brazil’s government to fiscal sustainability will intensify over the next two years and weigh on its sovereign bonds and the real. WEBINAR INVITE: To... 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think bond yields will stay low In our view, major central banks will generally take a more cautious approach to tightening monetary policy than they did in the past. This underpins our forecast that the yields of 10-year government... 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt Indian yields will rise any further Indian government bond yields have increased sharply since the Union Budget earlier this week but we don’t think they will rise much further, and they may even decline slightly from here. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The Biden administration and the US dollar We think that the US will return to a more traditional approach to the greenback under Joe Biden, and we anticipate that the overall effect of his economic policies will favour a weaker dollar. 3rd February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We see smaller gains ahead for EM Asian equities We think that the recent rally in emerging market (EM) Asian equities outside of China will slow substantially this year, and that they will begin to underperform other EM equities. Global State of... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think the future is brighter for Kiwi than Aussie While we have revised up our end-2021 forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar to reflect the strength of their recent rallies, we still think that the Kiwi... 25th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt that the BTP sell-off will continue While the yield of ten-year Italian government bonds has risen recently, we continue to expect it to fall back by end-2021 thanks to ECB support and a benign domestic and global backdrop. 22nd January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Three risks to our forecast for a weaker dollar Although several factors could conceivably support the dollar in the near term, we still think it will weaken overall this year as Fed policy remains accommodative and appetite for risk continues to... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation compensation and the outlook for Treasuries Although Treasury inflation compensation – i.e. gaps between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real yields of TIPS with comparable maturities – has risen sharply since the spring... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Chinese equities to underperform in 2021 Although Chinese equities have bounced back a bit so far in 2021, they have still underperformed those elsewhere since the news on vaccine efficacy in late 2020. We expect further underperformance... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
