Global Markets Update DIANE could be TINA’s nemesis Judging by the bear markets of the past fifty years or so (see here), the valuation of the US stock market can make a big difference to how far it falls and how long it takes before it reaches a floor... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of recent currency market moves While some of the large shifts in the FX market over the past weeks may unwind if the coronavirus epidemic fades, we have revised some of our forecasts to reflect the sharp fall in US interest rates... 12th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update No need to panic about surge in US HY credit spread Although the US high-yield credit spread soared on Monday to its highest level in nearly four years, we don’t think that the US economy is bound to plunge into another deep recession. 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Emerging Asian equities likely to lag in any rebound If, as we expect, worst fears about the coronavirus outbreak don’t materialise, global stock markets will probably generally recover. However, we doubt that this will be the case for equities in... 6th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Lowering our US Treasury yield forecast Given the rapid spread of the coronavirus and the Fed’s emergency rate cut, we are revising down our end-2020 forecast for the US 10-year Treasury yield from 2% to 1.25%. 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Global bond rally might be running out of fuel In our view, the coronavirus epidemic would have to get much worse for central banks to deliver more rate cuts that investors now anticipate. As such, we think that government bond yields in most... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our forecasts in light of the virus The growing possibility that the COVID-19 virus will have a widespread and lasting impact on the global economy increases the downside risks to our forecasts for equities and bond yields. 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro likely to end 2020 even weaker against the dollar While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US dollar likely to stay strong even if virus risk fades We think that the greenback will remain strong this year, even if some of its recent strength may unwind. 17th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of recent moves in bonds & currencies We think that the recent rebound in the yields of many developed and emerging market government bonds will generally continue in the rest of this year, if the coronavirus epidemic is contained. By... 13th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Epidemic not the only cloud over Chinese markets While Chinese equities and bond yields might return to their levels of early-January if the coronavirus epidemic is contained, our bearish view of China’s economy suggests to us that they and the... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Sanders’ surge could be bad news for US equities Bernie Sanders is still a long way from the White House, but several of his policies look very negative for US equities. If his support continues to climb that could start to weigh on the US stock... 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Outlook for EM Asian equities grim, regardless of virus We wouldn’t be surprised if the recent recovery of EM equities continued over the coming weeks, with the stock markets of those countries that fell furthest following the outbreak of the coronavirus... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Politics unlikely to prevent a drop in EZ bond yields Although there remains significant political uncertainty in many euro-zone countries, we doubt that this will prevent most government bond yields from falling a bit further this year. 3rd February 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Coronavirus impact on bonds yields may not last The market impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China has escalated over recent days, and increasingly resembles last year’s trade-war-driven turmoil in May and August. But unless the fallout from... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
