Global Markets Update ECB policy likely to push bond yields and euro down While we have altered our forecasts for ECB policy this year, we are still more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. As such, we continue to think that... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s equities & currency likely to underwhelm Optimism about a Phase One deal has driven the rally in Chinese equities and the renminbi since late 2019. But now that the deal has been signed, this ought to be fully discounted in the markets. And... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Corporate bonds unlikely to make strong gains in 2020 Corporate bond markets in the US, the UK and the euro-zone have started 2020 on a strong footing, largely reflecting expectations that monetary policy there will remain accommodative for the... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings unlikely to pick up the baton & boost equities While corporate earnings in the US will probably recover a bit this year, we think that they will fall short of expectations of a big rebound. And given that we don’t expect valuations to rise... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Key market calls for 2020 After large gains for both bonds and equities in 2019, we expect that both will fare less well next year. And, in contrast to most other forecasters, we think that the US dollar will rise further in... 23rd December 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update CAD & NOK set to outperform in 2020 Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What are the precedents for a Labour win next week? A surprise win for Labour at Thursday’s election could be a major shock to UK equity markets. There are few recent examples of an unexpected sharp left-ward political turn in a developed economy. But... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update DM stocks exposed to China likely to keep struggling Given our pessimistic view of China’s economy and the trade war, we think that the underperformance of developed market (DM) companies exposed to China will continue. Admittedly, the MSCI index that... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think that the dollar is especially overvalued Despite President Trump’s frequent complaints about the strength of the dollar, its valuation is not especially high in our view and is unlikely to prevent it from rising further in the next couple of... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss & Swedish govt. bond yields likely to drop back We doubt that the global pick-up in government bond yields will resume anytime soon, so domestic monetary policy is likely to be the key driver of bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics. With that in... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update UK shareholders should worry about a Labour win The Labour Party’s manifesto contains several measures which, if implemented, would have a significant negative effect on UK equites. A surprise Labour win could send UK equities tumbling, despite a... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US Treasury yields likely to stay low US Treasury yields have rebounded over the past few weeks, as worries about the US-China trade war and the outlook for the global economy have eased somewhat. But while we don’t expect them to revisit... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Trade deal unlikely to provide more upside for equities Optimism about trade has been a factor behind the rally in global equities in the past month. But with a “mini-deal” now largely discounted in the markets, and economic growth unlikely to do better... 19th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Low VIX doesn’t have to spell trouble for US equities Although volatility in the US stock market is expected to remain very low, we don’t think that this is a worrying sign that investors are being complacent. That is because big stock market corrections... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update South African bonds and the rand likely to sell-off The loss of the South African government’s final investment grade credit rating is already largely priced in, but there are still reasons to be downbeat on the country’s government bonds, and the rand... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update A Conservative election win could boost UK equities If the Conservative Party wins an outright majority in the upcoming general election on 12th December, as polls suggest is the most likely outcome, there is potentially significant upside for UK... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
