Global Markets Update “Core” bond yields likely to remain even lower for longer Although we still think that “risky” assets will make further ground between now and the end of 2022, we no longer expect “safe” government bond yields to rise. We have also become more positive on... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The market implications of financial repression in EMs Policymakers in a few emerging markets have turned to unconventional monetary policies to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, and some may go further into outright financial... 31st July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Joint rally in euro & BTPs may not be over yet Over the past few months, the euro and the BTP-Bund spread have moved closely together, with the euro strengthening as the BTP-Bund spread narrowed and vice versa. We think that this pattern will... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the dollar to come under renewed pressure Although the US dollar has stabilised over the past month or so as fears about a second wave have held back the rebound in risky assets, we continue to think that it will lose further ground over the... 20th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Valuations not a major threat to equity rally in our view We don’t think that the valuations of equities in general are particularly stretched. In any case, valuations are like pieces of elastic – they can stretch a lot before they snap. In our view... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Resurgent pandemic the key risk to our forecasts While we remain optimistic about the outlook for equities and other risky assets, the rapid increase in new coronavirus cases, especially in the US, poses a key downside risk to our generally... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate spreads likely to narrow further News that a major US shale oil producer filed for bankruptcy last week has raised concerns about a new wave of coronavirus-induced corporate defaults. But even if the default rate does pick up in the... 7th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect more upside for the euro & many E-Z assets While the euro and many euro-zone assets have rallied significantly over the past two months, we think that there is scope for them to make more headway this year. 26th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect commodity currencies to make further ground If we are right that commodity prices will make up more ground as economies continue to reopen, the rally in commodity currencies may have further to go. 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that the US dollar will weaken further We now expect that the US dollar will depreciate further as risky assets resume their rebound and the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revisiting our forecasts for equities With monetary policy likely to remain loose for a long time and the world’s largest economies gradually re-opening, our view remains that equity markets will continue to make ground over the coming... 11th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Yields more likely to fall further in EMs than DMs While sovereign bond yields in most developed markets are unlikely to reach new lows and, in our view, will stay around their current levels for some time, local-currency sovereign bond yields in some... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update China stimulus likely to provide only limited boost Additional stimulus from China strengthens our view that the rebound in equities will continue, especially in emerging markets. But the effect is unlikely to be as big as in 2008-09, and China’s... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of the rally in US equities Although the S&P 500’s rally over the past two months is remarkable, we don’t think that it reflects excessive optimism among investors. In our view, equities can rise further from here. 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the US dollar’s strength will end soon Although uncertainty about the post-virus prospects for the global economy should continue to support the US dollar, we think that the ongoing recovery in risky assets and the fall in US interest... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
