Bonds & Equities We expect Canadian dollar appreciation to persist We are upgrading our already above-consensus forecast for the Canadian dollar, as we expect higher oil prices, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and favourable interest rate differentials to drive a... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the risk of another crash in Chinese equities Some measures of valuation and risk-taking in Chinese equities have approached levels last seen prior to their crash in 2015. We think another crash is unlikely, but doubt equities will make much more... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Geopolitical tensions key to outlook for the EMBI Europe The yield of the EMBI Europe has risen since June and we doubt that it will fall back much over the coming year if geopolitical tensions involving Turkey and Russia persist. 8th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Prospects are brighter for Kiwi than Aussie in our view We have revised up our already-bullish forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar over the next few years, to reflect changes to our outlook for the Chinese... 8th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Risk of US Treasury backlash unlikely to deter SNB Although the SNB meets the US Treasury’s criteria for a “currency manipulator”, we doubt this would deter it from intervening further in the foreign exchange market if required to keep the franc... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update How we think Japan’s markets may perform under Suga In this Update, we consider the near-term outlooks for the yen, Japanese equities and government bonds under new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, and compare them with their performance in the early... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Brighter outlook for the Norwegian krone next year Although the Norwegian krone has been the worst performing G10 currency so far in 2020, we expect it to make up some lost ground in 2021 even if it falls a bit more in the near term. 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Stronger renminbi may help other currencies in the region Despite falling back a little this week, we still expect most currencies in the Asia-Pacific region to make headway against the dollar over the next couple of years, led by a stronger renminbi. 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risks to our equity forecasts from second waves While we continue to forecast that equity markets will make further ground in the next few years, the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in Europe poses a downside risk to our projections. 21st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that the risks to our yen forecast lie to the upside Although policymakers in Japan may prefer a weaker yen, in our view it is more likely to rise than to fall. 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Stars aligned for further renminbi appreciation The renminbi has risen 5% against the US dollar since May, to its strongest since early 2019. And with China on course for a more pronounced recovery than elsewhere, its external position the... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update UK assets have scope to rally in our view Despite the recent resurgence in uncertainty about the UK's future relationship with the EU, we think that it is still possible to make a positive case for UK assets. 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Despite ECB, we see upside risks to our euro forecast Despite its recent rally, the euro is not particularly strong in our view, and we think that it could well rise further over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest, we are sending... 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Real rate differentials may continue to weigh on US dollar While we think that nominal interest rates and bond yields in developed markets will remain around their current ultra-low levels for some time, we think that their real counterparts will fall further... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update A closer look at Japanese and Swiss equities We suspect that the coronavirus-induced local-currency underperformance of MSCI’s Japan and Switzerland indices relative to its USA Index will unwind as the world slowly gets back to normal. 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Rumours of the dollar’s demise are greatly exaggerated While we think the US dollar will weaken a bit further this year, suggestions that its role as the world’s primary reserve currency is in jeopardy are wide of the mark in our view. 19th August 2020 · 5 mins read
