Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads may fall a little further While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z equities may still outperform, despite weaker recovery We expect equities in the euro-zone to outperform those in the US between now and the end of 2022 even as the economic recovery in the former continues to lag that in the latter. Webinar Invite: The... 10th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gains in EM Asia stock markets to remain small We don’t think stock markets in emerging Asia will come roaring back to life any time soon, and forecast relatively small increases in equity indices there over the next few years. 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that euro-zone yields will rise only gradually Despite tentative signs of improvement in the euro-zone economy recently and our expectation that long-term US Treasury yields will rise significantly over the next couple of years, we forecast that... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM bond risk premia We expect risk premia on emerging market (EM) bonds to diverge over the coming years even if appetite for “risky” assets generally continues to increase. 27th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think long-term Treasury yields will resume their rise We doubt that the recent fall in long-term Treasury yields will persist, and are sticking with our view that they will rise a fairly long way by the end of the year. 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising down our forecast for Swiss equities We no longer expect the MSCI Switzerland Index to outperform the MSCI USA Index over the next couple of years and have lowered our end-2021 and end-2022 forecasts accordingly. 20th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the market implications of an SDR allocation We think the IMF’s anticipated $650bn Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation is unlikely to have a major market impact, although it might provide countries with falling exchange rates and low levels... 15th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect bond yield divergence to favour the USD We expect higher government bond yields in the US than in other developed markets (DMs) to push the US dollar up, as has generally been the case since the Global Financial Crisis. 9th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Some market implications of central banks going “green” In recent years, and particularly since the start of the pandemic, the pressure on central banks to address climate change has increased. This Update considers the potential implications for financial... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for EM assets and currencies We have recently revised up our end-21 and end-22 projections for the US ten-year Treasury yield, which has prompted us to revise down our forecasts for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies. 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up our forecast for the US dollar We now expect that the US dollar will strengthen somewhat over the next couple of years as the US economy outperforms and its policy mix diverges from that in most other major economies. 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We now forecast further increases in DM bond yields In light of our revised forecasts for long-term US Treasury yields, we have raised our forecasts for the yields of 10-year government bonds in most other developed markets. But in most cases we doubt... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We now think the 10-year Treasury yield will rise further The sharp rise of US yields in response to this year’s shift in US fiscal policy and rapid progress on vaccinations – and the Fed’s apparent willingness to accept higher long-term interest rates –... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Brazil’s stock market may continue to underperform We had expected Brazil’s stock market to be among the best performers in the world this year, but with the virus still running rampant and populist policymaking on the rise, we now think its... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Bond yields and the outlook for DM equities Despite the recent turmoil in bond markets, we continue to expect developed market (DM) equities to gain ground in the rest of this year as real yields remain quite low and economic growth stays... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
