Global Markets Update Revising up our forecast for the US dollar We now expect that the US dollar will strengthen somewhat over the next couple of years as the US economy outperforms and its policy mix diverges from that in most other major economies. 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We now forecast further increases in DM bond yields In light of our revised forecasts for long-term US Treasury yields, we have raised our forecasts for the yields of 10-year government bonds in most other developed markets. But in most cases we doubt... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We now think the 10-year Treasury yield will rise further The sharp rise of US yields in response to this year’s shift in US fiscal policy and rapid progress on vaccinations – and the Fed’s apparent willingness to accept higher long-term interest rates –... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Brazil’s stock market may continue to underperform We had expected Brazil’s stock market to be among the best performers in the world this year, but with the virus still running rampant and populist policymaking on the rise, we now think its... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Bond yields and the outlook for DM equities Despite the recent turmoil in bond markets, we continue to expect developed market (DM) equities to gain ground in the rest of this year as real yields remain quite low and economic growth stays... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of higher FX-hedged Treasury yields We think that high FX-hedged yields on 10-year US Treasuries will encourage more purchases from non-US investors and may help to limit the rise in US government bond yields even as the economy... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s markets may diverge from those elsewhere Just as we expect China’s economy to slow later this year even as growth picks up rapidly elsewhere, we think China’s financial markets could stand out from those in the rest of the world in the... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that the future is bright for Japanese equities We think that the recent outperformance of the MSCI Japan Index relative to the MSCI USA Index will continue as the world slowly gets back to normal. 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Rising bond yields and the outlook for the US dollar The rise of government bond yields in the US and other developed markets (DMs) this year has made a significant impact on currency markets and, if it continues, would challenge our forecast for a... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the risks to EMs from higher US real yields We don’t expect the recent rise in US bond yields to turn into a rerun of the 2013 Taper Tantrum. But even if US real yields continued to grind higher, we think that EM assets and currencies would be... 4th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update We expect oil to be the key driver for the loonie Given our latest forecast for oil prices, we now expect the Canadian dollar to rise further in 2021 than we previously thought, but to drop back a bit in 2022. 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect the rise in real yields to continue Even if nominal government bond yields kept rising this year, we suspect that this would be driven by rising inflation compensation rather than real yields, in contrast with the past couple of weeks. 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Why we think the rally in sterling will continue The pound has performed better than all other G10 currencies so far in 2021 (see Chart 1), rising from $1.36 at the start of January to almost a three-year high of $1.41 now. We expect the strength of... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM currency appreciation to moderate While we expect that EM currencies in general will rise further this year due to strong appetite for risk and a recovering global economy, we think several headwinds will limit their appreciation. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update A fresh look at equity market performance since vaccines We think that the positive equity market rotation that accompanied November’s vaccine announcements will resume before long if, as we expect, vaccines allow restrictions on activity to be lifted later... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update 10-year Treasury yield may rise a bit further With a large fiscal stimulus package looking increasingly probable in the US, and the Fed unlikely to push back on higher inflation expectations, we think the yield of 10-year US Treasuries may rise a... 12th February 2021 · 4 mins read
