Global Markets Update The virus and global stock markets Progress made by countries in dealing with COVID-19 still seems to have had little bearing, in general, on the relative performance of their stock markets. Instead, swings in sentiment about the virus... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Gains in EM equities may be small from here We don’t expect emerging market (EM) equities, as a whole, to rack up big gains over the next few years thanks in part to the spillovers of lower growth in China. 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Tapering and Treasuries We think tapering by the Fed will remove an obstacle in the way of higher long-term yields, supporting our view that their latest rebound will continue, in general, over the next couple of years. 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Weighing up the prospects for DM sovereign yields Given our forecasts for the paths of monetary policy across developed markets, we expect a general ‘bear steepening’ of sovereign yield curves in the near term, particularly in the US, Canada and... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of US earnings season so far While the earnings of firms in the S&P 500 have generally surprised to the upside in the second quarter of this year (Q2), we think the scope for further positive earnings surprises from here is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt global saving will stop US yields from rising In the early 2000s, a ‘glut’ of global saving may have helped restrain rises in long-term US bond yields, even as investors began to discount tighter monetary policy. We don’t think that similar... 28th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to remain low While we no longer expect peripheral spreads to narrow this year, we still think that they will remain close to their current levels, which are close to the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis. 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Bund yields to rise, but only gradually Though we think that the recent decline in the 10-year Bund yield is an overreaction, we expect it to rise only a little over the next couple of years, and by less than yields in many other developed... 22nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Oil prices and the outlook for US corporate bonds Although we expect a significant fall in the price of oil to put some pressure on the energy sector of the US corporate bond market, we expect spreads more generally to remain quite low in the next... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury yield forecasts We don’t expect the latest tumble in long-dated US Treasury yields to continue, and still think yields will rise significantly over the next few years. But given developments over the past couple of... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Oil prices, inflation compensation and Treasury yields Although oil prices and inflation compensation have historically moved in lockstep, we don’t think our projection that oil prices will fall over the next couple of years is inconsistent with our... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings expectations and the outlook for DM equities We think that there is more scope for earnings expectations to improve outside, than inside, the US. In both cases, though, we are not anticipating upward revisions on the scale seen over the past... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to rise again Although the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back following last week’s FOMC meeting, we still expect it to increase again before too long. 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect yields to rise less in Germany than in the US The yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds have moved in lockstep since the latest Fed meeting, but we doubt that this will continue. While we expect the Treasury yield to rise sharply... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The S&P 500, bond yields and the Fed Wednesday’s hawkish surprise from the Fed adds weight to our views that i) the US stock market will see only limited gains between now and the end of 2023, even as the economy generally continues to... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect higher inflation to derail US equities While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
