Global Markets Update China’s economic slowdown and US Treasury yields Although slowing growth in China has probably weighed on US Treasury yields in the past, we don’t expect it to prevent them from rising over the next couple of years. 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the sell-off in DM bonds will resume While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Commodity prices and global equity markets We think the prices of most commodities will fall over the next couple of years, and that this will prove to be a headwind for many countries’ stock markets. But the strength of that headwind will... 7th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of the sell-off in EM LC bonds We expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to rise over the coming years. But, in most EMs, we think yields will rise by less than the 10-year US... 6th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update A deeper dive into Chinese equities’ sectoral performance While financials and real estate have been among the worst-performing sectors in the MSCI China Index this year we think that there may be scope for them, as well as the energy sector, to outperform... 29th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think tapering is a big threat to equities We doubt ‘tapering’ of the Fed’s asset purchases over the next year or so would weigh heavily on the US stock market, and forecast that it will make small gains over the next couple of years. 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Falling oil prices unlikely to stop EMEA equity gains Despite the fall in oil prices that we expect over the coming years, we forecast the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) EMEA Index to make further gains and continue to outperform the broader MSCI EM Index. 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Japan’s stock market to run out of steam While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury yields & the outlook for EM LC bonds We think that the increase in long-dated Treasury yields which we forecast will push up the yields of equivalent emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) bonds. Based on historical relationships, we... 8th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Four points on tapering and government bond yields We don’t think tapering by the Fed will cause long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply, although it may contribute some upward pressure. But we do think those yields will rise quite a bit anyway... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The virus and global stock markets Progress made by countries in dealing with COVID-19 still seems to have had little bearing, in general, on the relative performance of their stock markets. Instead, swings in sentiment about the virus... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Gains in EM equities may be small from here We don’t expect emerging market (EM) equities, as a whole, to rack up big gains over the next few years thanks in part to the spillovers of lower growth in China. 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Tapering and Treasuries We think tapering by the Fed will remove an obstacle in the way of higher long-term yields, supporting our view that their latest rebound will continue, in general, over the next couple of years. 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Weighing up the prospects for DM sovereign yields Given our forecasts for the paths of monetary policy across developed markets, we expect a general ‘bear steepening’ of sovereign yield curves in the near term, particularly in the US, Canada and... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of US earnings season so far While the earnings of firms in the S&P 500 have generally surprised to the upside in the second quarter of this year (Q2), we think the scope for further positive earnings surprises from here is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
