Global Markets Update We expect the tailwind to stocks from commodities to fade The rise in commodity prices has boosted some commodity-heavy stock markets, but we suspect that it will run out of steam before long, limiting those stock markets’ gains over the next couple of years... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM monetary policy & LC bonds While we expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to increase as the US 10-year Treasury yield resumes its rise, we think increases in yields will... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gradual increases in 10-year DM bond yields We think most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until at least early 2023. Even so, we expect the yields of 10-year DM... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings expectations and the outlook for the S&P 500 We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains over the next few years. But we think some sectors – such as financials – will continue to do better than the index as a whole. 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation and long-term US Treasury yields We expect long-term Treasury yields to rise more decisively before long, driven by long-term real yields. 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads may fall a little further While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z equities may still outperform, despite weaker recovery We expect equities in the euro-zone to outperform those in the US between now and the end of 2022 even as the economic recovery in the former continues to lag that in the latter. Webinar Invite: The... 10th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gains in EM Asia stock markets to remain small We don’t think stock markets in emerging Asia will come roaring back to life any time soon, and forecast relatively small increases in equity indices there over the next few years. 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that euro-zone yields will rise only gradually Despite tentative signs of improvement in the euro-zone economy recently and our expectation that long-term US Treasury yields will rise significantly over the next couple of years, we forecast that... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM bond risk premia We expect risk premia on emerging market (EM) bonds to diverge over the coming years even if appetite for “risky” assets generally continues to increase. 27th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think long-term Treasury yields will resume their rise We doubt that the recent fall in long-term Treasury yields will persist, and are sticking with our view that they will rise a fairly long way by the end of the year. 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising down our forecast for Swiss equities We no longer expect the MSCI Switzerland Index to outperform the MSCI USA Index over the next couple of years and have lowered our end-2021 and end-2022 forecasts accordingly. 20th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the market implications of an SDR allocation We think the IMF’s anticipated $650bn Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation is unlikely to have a major market impact, although it might provide countries with falling exchange rates and low levels... 15th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect bond yield divergence to favour the USD We expect higher government bond yields in the US than in other developed markets (DMs) to push the US dollar up, as has generally been the case since the Global Financial Crisis. 9th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Some market implications of central banks going “green” In recent years, and particularly since the start of the pandemic, the pressure on central banks to address climate change has increased. This Update considers the potential implications for financial... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for EM assets and currencies We have recently revised up our end-21 and end-22 projections for the US ten-year Treasury yield, which has prompted us to revise down our forecasts for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies. 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
