Global Markets Update Earnings may be the next headwind for the S&P 500 Despite its struggles yesterday, we think the S&P 500 may have some way further to fall as the economy slows and more companies struggle to meet optimistic earnings expectations. Note: We’ll be... 19th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Bear markets, monetary tightening and the S&P 500 The current struggles of the S&P 500 don’t have much in common with most previous “bear markets”, but we still think one is likely as the Fed presses ahead with monetary tightening. 18th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings might not bail out the S&P 500 The S&P 500 might continue to struggle if, as we expect, slowing economic growth and rising labour costs causes corporate profits to grow by less than most anticipate. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk of a surge in E-Z peripheral spreads has risen While our central forecast remains that euro-zone “peripheral” spreads will rise only a bit between now and the end of 2022, we think that the risk of a significant increase in spreads has risen. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect corporate bond spreads to rise a bit more We expect concerns about global economic growth and monetary policy tightening to push up the spreads of developed market corporate bonds a bit further over the coming year. Markets Drop-In (11 th May... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What this week’s Fed decisions mean for markets With more monetary tightening to come from the Fed, we think the rise in Treasury yields has further to run and that equities will continue to struggle. Markets Drop-In (11 th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What the evolving monetary policy outlook means for bonds This Update presents our revised forecasts for the yields of developed market (DM) long-term government bonds, in light of recent market moves and changes to our expectations for monetary policy. 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Optimistic earnings expectations may slow E-Z equities Earnings expectations for listed euro-zone companies look, as a whole, a bit optimistic to us given the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Western This feeds into our view that the region’s... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revisiting “Le Pen risk” & implications for financial markets While the prospect of a euro-zone break-up looks more remote than during the 2017 French presidential campaign, the possibility of Marine Le Pen taking power is still a major risk to euro-zone... 7th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The global tightening cycle and bond yields This tightening cycle looks set to be much more synchronised across developed market economies than the last one, which we think creates more scope for rises in bond yields across countries but could... 5th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think China’s stock market is set to surge While we suspect the recent recovery in the MSCI China Index may have further to run, we don’t think the stage is set for a big rally either. 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate earnings may be resilient to Ukraine war While we think that the war in Ukraine and Fed tightening will weigh on US corporate earnings, we still expect those earnings to grow in the next two years or so. This underpins our view that US... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Petrodollars probably won’t save Treasuries this time The reinvestment of oil revenues into US markets probably helped avert a rout in Treasuries during the mid-2000s hiking cycle, but even with oil prices on the rise again we don’t expect so-called... 24th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our market forecasts in light of the war We think the war in Ukraine and a more hawkish Fed will cause the yield of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar generally to end 2022 and 2023 a bit higher than we had previously anticipated. We... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our forecasts for US Treasury yields We think the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to the 10-year Treasury yield ending this year and next a bit higher than we had previously anticipated, although we still expect it to rise only... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Three ways the war has changed the markets outlook Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. In... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
