Global Markets Update US corporate earnings may be resilient to Ukraine war While we think that the war in Ukraine and Fed tightening will weigh on US corporate earnings, we still expect those earnings to grow in the next two years or so. This underpins our view that US... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Petrodollars probably won’t save Treasuries this time The reinvestment of oil revenues into US markets probably helped avert a rout in Treasuries during the mid-2000s hiking cycle, but even with oil prices on the rise again we don’t expect so-called... 24th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our market forecasts in light of the war We think the war in Ukraine and a more hawkish Fed will cause the yield of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar generally to end 2022 and 2023 a bit higher than we had previously anticipated. We... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our forecasts for US Treasury yields We think the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to the 10-year Treasury yield ending this year and next a bit higher than we had previously anticipated, although we still expect it to rise only... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Three ways the war has changed the markets outlook Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. In... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EZ corporate & sovereign spreads may converge again Although a gap between euro-zone corporate and peripheral sovereign spreads opened up after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it has begun to close recently and we think that it will shrink further... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the risks to the S&P 500 from high oil prices The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil trade have increased oil prices by as much as 40% so far this year, but we don’t think higher energy costs will derail the US stock market as they might... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update War, sanctions, and the resilience of the S&P 500 The US stock market has so far held up fairly well despite the Russia-Ukraine war. We think it will probably manage to make small gains over the rest of the year, although there are clear downside... 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update How the war in Ukraine is challenging our views This Update discusses three ways in which the outbreak of war in Ukraine has called into question our asset allocation views. While the situation is fluid and the outlook especially uncertain, it also... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Lessons from past conflicts and crises The onset of other major conflicts and military-related crises have often seen global equity indices tumble, while moves in developed market government bond yields have depended on how energy prices... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Russia’s financial markets staring into the abyss New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How the Russia-Ukraine war is shaking up the markets outlook Amid all the volatility in global markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far, we think there are several key lessons we can draw from the relative performance of bonds, equities and currencies... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Could the US stock market rely on a “Powell Put”? While the mood seems to have improved a little at the time of writing, the S&P 500 closed yesterday more than 10% lower than its recent peak at the start of the year, satisfying the criteria for a... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for German and Swiss Government bonds We think that the gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds will re-emerge over the next couple of years as the ECB tightens policy more quickly than the SNB. In view of the... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
