Global Markets Update We expect DM bond yields to rebound further this year Despite a rebound over the past day or so, 10-year developed market government bond yields have fallen substantially in recent weeks. This has coincided with investors lowering their expectations for... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Answering your questions on our market forecasts We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We now expect higher and earlier peaks in bond yields We now think that the yields of 10-year developed market government bonds will peak earlier and, in some cases, at higher levels than we previously expected. That reflects a view that tightening... 22nd June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22 nd... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for US Treasuries & the S&P 500 We think the sell-offs in US government bonds and equities have further to run, and have revised our forecasts for 10-year Treasuries and the S&P 500 accordingly. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How changes to yield curve control might affect JGBs We think the Bank of Japan will widen the tolerance band around its 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield target, and that the yield will consequently rise by around 25bp. But there is a clear risk... 15th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Turning more downbeat on both Treasuries & US equities The prospect of tighter Fed policy than we had previously envisaged presents upside risks to our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield as well as downside risks to our forecasts for the S&P 500. In... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ to raise ceiling on 10-year yields The weakening in the yen to a 24-year low and a crack in the Bank of Japan’s ceiling on 10-year yields today is putting significant pressure on policymakers to respond. FX intervention is a... 13th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update New, higher forecasts for EZ bond yields and spreads We are raising our forecasts for euro-zone 10-year government bond yields and “peripheral” spreads to reflect the ECB’s further hawkish shift as well as its apparent unwillingness to commit to a... 10th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the decline in inflation compensation We don’t expect long-term inflation compensation to continue to tumble, and think long-term government bond yields will bounce back before long. 26th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings may be the next headwind for the S&P 500 Despite its struggles yesterday, we think the S&P 500 may have some way further to fall as the economy slows and more companies struggle to meet optimistic earnings expectations. Note: We’ll be... 19th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Bear markets, monetary tightening and the S&P 500 The current struggles of the S&P 500 don’t have much in common with most previous “bear markets”, but we still think one is likely as the Fed presses ahead with monetary tightening. 18th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings might not bail out the S&P 500 The S&P 500 might continue to struggle if, as we expect, slowing economic growth and rising labour costs causes corporate profits to grow by less than most anticipate. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk of a surge in E-Z peripheral spreads has risen While our central forecast remains that euro-zone “peripheral” spreads will rise only a bit between now and the end of 2022, we think that the risk of a significant increase in spreads has risen. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect corporate bond spreads to rise a bit more We expect concerns about global economic growth and monetary policy tightening to push up the spreads of developed market corporate bonds a bit further over the coming year. Markets Drop-In (11 th May... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What this week’s Fed decisions mean for markets With more monetary tightening to come from the Fed, we think the rise in Treasury yields has further to run and that equities will continue to struggle. Markets Drop-In (11 th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
