Global Markets Update We now expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to widen a bit We now think that, rather than remaining broadly stable, the spreads of euro-zone “peripheral” bonds will widen somewhat over the next two years as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy. That... 17th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Chinese government bond yields to decline In contrast with our expectations for sovereign bond yields to rise around the rest of the world, we think that the 10-year Chinese government bond yield will decline over the next couple of years as... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of earnings expectations in US & Europe We think expectations for corporate earnings in the US and most of Europe are unlikely to improve much further. One exception is the UK, where earnings expectations look a bit less upbeat. 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt Brazilian assets will rebound any time soon While Brazil’s bond and stock markets have struggled lately, we don’t think either are set for a significant rebound any time soon, and suspect both will remain under pressure in the run-up to next... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think DM yield curves will steepen again While the recent rise in the yields of short-dated developed market (DM) government bonds looks overdone to us, we still think that the yields of long-dated bonds will resume their rise. 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s economic slowdown and US Treasury yields Although slowing growth in China has probably weighed on US Treasury yields in the past, we don’t expect it to prevent them from rising over the next couple of years. 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the sell-off in DM bonds will resume While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Commodity prices and global equity markets We think the prices of most commodities will fall over the next couple of years, and that this will prove to be a headwind for many countries’ stock markets. But the strength of that headwind will... 7th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of the sell-off in EM LC bonds We expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to rise over the coming years. But, in most EMs, we think yields will rise by less than the 10-year US... 6th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update A deeper dive into Chinese equities’ sectoral performance While financials and real estate have been among the worst-performing sectors in the MSCI China Index this year we think that there may be scope for them, as well as the energy sector, to outperform... 29th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think tapering is a big threat to equities We doubt ‘tapering’ of the Fed’s asset purchases over the next year or so would weigh heavily on the US stock market, and forecast that it will make small gains over the next couple of years. 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Falling oil prices unlikely to stop EMEA equity gains Despite the fall in oil prices that we expect over the coming years, we forecast the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) EMEA Index to make further gains and continue to outperform the broader MSCI EM Index. 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Japan’s stock market to run out of steam While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury yields & the outlook for EM LC bonds We think that the increase in long-dated Treasury yields which we forecast will push up the yields of equivalent emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) bonds. Based on historical relationships, we... 8th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Four points on tapering and government bond yields We don’t think tapering by the Fed will cause long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply, although it may contribute some upward pressure. But we do think those yields will rise quite a bit anyway... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
