Global Markets Update Fed tightening & the outlook for US corporate bonds Our baseline forecast envisages that US corporate bond spreads rise only slightly as the Fed raises interest rates over the next couple of years. But we think the risks to this forecast are skewed to... 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that China’s equities will continue to struggle Even though we doubt that China’s equities will fare anywhere near as badly over the next couple of years as they did in 2021, we do not expect them to make strong gains from here either. 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Key financial market calls for 2022 We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our forecasts for DM 10-year bond yields We continue to expect monetary tightening to push up 10-year government bond yields across developed markets (DMs) but we now forecast them to reach a higher level than we had previously anticipated... 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening may limit gains in US equities While we don’t think the stock market’s falls this week mark the start of a sustained rout, we do expect Fed tightening to curb the upside for mid- and large-cap US equities over the next couple of... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our forecast for Treasuries We are revising down our end-2022 and end-2023 forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 25bp each, to 2.00% and 2.25%, respectively. This compares to its current level of ~1.4%. 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM earnings expectations are too optimistic In our view, analysts’ expectations for earnings across the emerging world over the next couple of years generally look a bit optimistic. And, since we don’t expect a major increase in valuations, we... 14th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think 10-year US inflation compensation will rise again Even though headline US CPI inflation may now have peaked, we still think long-term inflation compensation could rise a little over the next couple of years. 10th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The Fed and the Treasury yield curve We now expect the Treasury yield curve to flatten further over the next couple of years but think that, in contrast with recent developments, this will happen alongside rising long-term yields. 9th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the market reaction to Omicron so far This Update takes stock of the moves in developed market (DM) asset markets in response to the “Omicron” variant, and provides initial thoughts on how we think things might progress if some of the... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We now expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to widen a bit We now think that, rather than remaining broadly stable, the spreads of euro-zone “peripheral” bonds will widen somewhat over the next two years as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy. That... 17th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Chinese government bond yields to decline In contrast with our expectations for sovereign bond yields to rise around the rest of the world, we think that the 10-year Chinese government bond yield will decline over the next couple of years as... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of earnings expectations in US & Europe We think expectations for corporate earnings in the US and most of Europe are unlikely to improve much further. One exception is the UK, where earnings expectations look a bit less upbeat. 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt Brazilian assets will rebound any time soon While Brazil’s bond and stock markets have struggled lately, we don’t think either are set for a significant rebound any time soon, and suspect both will remain under pressure in the run-up to next... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think DM yield curves will steepen again While the recent rise in the yields of short-dated developed market (DM) government bonds looks overdone to us, we still think that the yields of long-dated bonds will resume their rise. 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
