Global Markets Update We expect EM LC government bonds to be a mixed bag We think that yields of 10-year emerging market local-currency government bonds may, in general, increase by more in Asia than in other regions by end-2023, in contrast with the pattern over the past... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Some more tweaks to our DM bond yield forecasts We continue to expect 10-year government bond yields across developed markets to rise over the next few years. But given some upward revisions to our policy rate forecasts for the euro-zone, Australia... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Quantitative tightening and Treasury term premia We think upcoming “quantitative tightening” by the Fed will contribute to further increases in the yields of long-dated Treasuries this year and next. 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings optimism may limit the upside for the S&P 500 We doubt the S&P 500 will get much of a boost from upward revisions to earnings forecasts between now and the end of 2022, which is one reason why we expect the index to make only small gains this... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Four points on Russia’s market sell-off The sell-off in Russia’s financial markets in response to the reassessment of the likelihood of conflict with Ukraine has pushed up the risk premium on Russian assets to a similar level to that which... 27th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening & the outlook for US corporate bonds Our baseline forecast envisages that US corporate bond spreads rise only slightly as the Fed raises interest rates over the next couple of years. But we think the risks to this forecast are skewed to... 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that China’s equities will continue to struggle Even though we doubt that China’s equities will fare anywhere near as badly over the next couple of years as they did in 2021, we do not expect them to make strong gains from here either. 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Key financial market calls for 2022 We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our forecasts for DM 10-year bond yields We continue to expect monetary tightening to push up 10-year government bond yields across developed markets (DMs) but we now forecast them to reach a higher level than we had previously anticipated... 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening may limit gains in US equities While we don’t think the stock market’s falls this week mark the start of a sustained rout, we do expect Fed tightening to curb the upside for mid- and large-cap US equities over the next couple of... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our forecast for Treasuries We are revising down our end-2022 and end-2023 forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 25bp each, to 2.00% and 2.25%, respectively. This compares to its current level of ~1.4%. 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM earnings expectations are too optimistic In our view, analysts’ expectations for earnings across the emerging world over the next couple of years generally look a bit optimistic. And, since we don’t expect a major increase in valuations, we... 14th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think 10-year US inflation compensation will rise again Even though headline US CPI inflation may now have peaked, we still think long-term inflation compensation could rise a little over the next couple of years. 10th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The Fed and the Treasury yield curve We now expect the Treasury yield curve to flatten further over the next couple of years but think that, in contrast with recent developments, this will happen alongside rising long-term yields. 9th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the market reaction to Omicron so far This Update takes stock of the moves in developed market (DM) asset markets in response to the “Omicron” variant, and provides initial thoughts on how we think things might progress if some of the... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
