Global Markets Update Treasury and bund sell off may be mostly over While US and euro-zone 10-year government bond yields have surged over recent weeks, we think this sell-off has mostly run its course – we expect these yields to end this year a bit below their... 2nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update German-Swiss bond yield spread may widen further We expect the spread between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to widen further over the remainder of this year. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What rate cuts may mean for China’s financial assets We expect the PBOC to follow its recent policy rate cuts with further easing over the months ahead. This informs our decision to lower our forecasts for China’s 10-year government bond yield. But we... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think the rally in the S&P 500 will last Despite its recent resurgence, we still expect the S&P 500 to fall over the remainder of this year. 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Challenges ahead for Brazil’s stock market Brazil’s stock market has fared better than most this year, but we forecast it to fall ~15% over the rest of 2022. And while we expect it to rebound over the following couple of years, we think... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Central bank “pivots” and the recent equity market rally The anticipation of quick reversals of central bank rate hikes has probably supported equity markets of late, but we suspect investors have become overly optimistic and still think equity prices will... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Answers to your questions on global markets We held a Drop In yesterday outlining our latest forecasts for global financial markets. This Update answers some questions that we received during that Drop In but didn’t have time to address. In... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update A brighter outlook for EM local currency bonds We continue to expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local currency (LC) sovereign bonds to rise over the rest of 2022. But we anticipate smaller rises than we did previously, given our... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for US markets We still expect a higher 10-year Treasury yield, lower S&P 500 and stronger US dollar over the remainder of the year, but have pared back our forecasts for the rise in yields and fall in equities. In... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt the stage is set for a “profitless” S&P 500 rally While the valuation of the S&P 500 has fallen a long way, we don’t expect it to rebound any time soon; this is one reason we expect the index to continue to struggle over at least the remainder of... 21st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities The threat to global markets from tweaking YCC again While a lot of attention has focussed naturally on the potential implications for the JGB market of a further tweaking of the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control , the country’s huge investment in... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The impact of QT on Treasury yields We think “quantitative tightening” (QT) may put upward pressure on long-dated Treasury yields over the coming years. But we think that changes in investors’ expectations for the fed funds rate will... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US and EZ corporate spreads will stay high While the largest increases in corporate spreads in the US and the euro-zone may now be behind us, we suspect that a challenging economic backdrop will keep spreads elevated in both places for some... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Upheaval at No.10 spells fresh trouble for UK assets We suspect that the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, weakness in the pound, and continued trouble for the FTSE 100. In view of... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect DM bond yields to rebound further this year Despite a rebound over the past day or so, 10-year developed market government bond yields have fallen substantially in recent weeks. This has coincided with investors lowering their expectations for... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
