Global Markets Update We doubt the stage is set for a “profitless” S&P 500 rally While the valuation of the S&P 500 has fallen a long way, we don’t expect it to rebound any time soon; this is one reason we expect the index to continue to struggle over at least the remainder of... 21st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities The threat to global markets from tweaking YCC again While a lot of attention has focussed naturally on the potential implications for the JGB market of a further tweaking of the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control , the country’s huge investment in... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The impact of QT on Treasury yields We think “quantitative tightening” (QT) may put upward pressure on long-dated Treasury yields over the coming years. But we think that changes in investors’ expectations for the fed funds rate will... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US and EZ corporate spreads will stay high While the largest increases in corporate spreads in the US and the euro-zone may now be behind us, we suspect that a challenging economic backdrop will keep spreads elevated in both places for some... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Upheaval at No.10 spells fresh trouble for UK assets We suspect that the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, weakness in the pound, and continued trouble for the FTSE 100. In view of... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect DM bond yields to rebound further this year Despite a rebound over the past day or so, 10-year developed market government bond yields have fallen substantially in recent weeks. This has coincided with investors lowering their expectations for... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Answering your questions on our market forecasts We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We now expect higher and earlier peaks in bond yields We now think that the yields of 10-year developed market government bonds will peak earlier and, in some cases, at higher levels than we previously expected. That reflects a view that tightening... 22nd June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22 nd... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for US Treasuries & the S&P 500 We think the sell-offs in US government bonds and equities have further to run, and have revised our forecasts for 10-year Treasuries and the S&P 500 accordingly. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How changes to yield curve control might affect JGBs We think the Bank of Japan will widen the tolerance band around its 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield target, and that the yield will consequently rise by around 25bp. But there is a clear risk... 15th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Turning more downbeat on both Treasuries & US equities The prospect of tighter Fed policy than we had previously envisaged presents upside risks to our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield as well as downside risks to our forecasts for the S&P 500. In... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ to raise ceiling on 10-year yields The weakening in the yen to a 24-year low and a crack in the Bank of Japan’s ceiling on 10-year yields today is putting significant pressure on policymakers to respond. FX intervention is a... 13th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update New, higher forecasts for EZ bond yields and spreads We are raising our forecasts for euro-zone 10-year government bond yields and “peripheral” spreads to reflect the ECB’s further hawkish shift as well as its apparent unwillingness to commit to a... 10th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the decline in inflation compensation We don’t expect long-term inflation compensation to continue to tumble, and think long-term government bond yields will bounce back before long. 26th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings may be the next headwind for the S&P 500 Despite its struggles yesterday, we think the S&P 500 may have some way further to fall as the economy slows and more companies struggle to meet optimistic earnings expectations. Note: We’ll be... 19th May 2022 · 4 mins read
