Europe Economics Update What to expect from Italy’s general election With Italy’s general election scheduled to take place this weekend, this Update answers six key questions about what to expect in the days and months following the vote. In view of the wider interest... 22nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What would a policy shift do for China’s markets? The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What are UK OIS really telling us about future BoE policy? Even more caution than usual should be exercised when using UK overnight indexed swap rates to infer the expected path of Bank Rate over the next couple of years. This is because they have risen by... 15th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the energy price cap for UK markets Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. In... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Are markets really braced for further volatility? Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EZ peripheral spreads will rise further We continue to expect euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to rise over the remainder of the year, owing to a combination of deteriorating appetite for risk, higher policy rates, and ambiguity about the ECB... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury and bund sell off may be mostly over While US and euro-zone 10-year government bond yields have surged over recent weeks, we think this sell-off has mostly run its course – we expect these yields to end this year a bit below their... 2nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update German-Swiss bond yield spread may widen further We expect the spread between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to widen further over the remainder of this year. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What rate cuts may mean for China’s financial assets We expect the PBOC to follow its recent policy rate cuts with further easing over the months ahead. This informs our decision to lower our forecasts for China’s 10-year government bond yield. But we... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think the rally in the S&P 500 will last Despite its recent resurgence, we still expect the S&P 500 to fall over the remainder of this year. 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Challenges ahead for Brazil’s stock market Brazil’s stock market has fared better than most this year, but we forecast it to fall ~15% over the rest of 2022. And while we expect it to rebound over the following couple of years, we think... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Central bank “pivots” and the recent equity market rally The anticipation of quick reversals of central bank rate hikes has probably supported equity markets of late, but we suspect investors have become overly optimistic and still think equity prices will... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Answers to your questions on global markets We held a Drop In yesterday outlining our latest forecasts for global financial markets. This Update answers some questions that we received during that Drop In but didn’t have time to address. In... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update A brighter outlook for EM local currency bonds We continue to expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local currency (LC) sovereign bonds to rise over the rest of 2022. But we anticipate smaller rises than we did previously, given our... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
