Capital Daily Reconciling our latest forecasts for JGBs and the yen Although the 10-year JGB yield has dropped back by about 10bp since the Bank of Japan refrained this week from abandoning Yield Curve Control, we think the yield will rebound when – or quite possibly... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update How abandoning Yield Curve Control would affect JGBs We think the yield of 10-year Japanese Government Bonds would rise to at least 1% if the Bank of Japan decided to abandon Yield Curve Control, which could conceivably happen as soon as tomorrow. But... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our financial market forecasts for China We have revised up our forecasts for equities in China, given a brighter outlook for the economy there. We have also increased our China 10-year sovereign bond yield forecast for end-2023, as we think... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors already seem braced for further falls in inflation Further big falls in inflation seem now to be discounted in major developed markets, especially the US. That helps to underpin our view that high-grade government bond markets will only rally a little... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Despite hawkish ECB, we expect lower E-Z yields While we think the hawkish ECB poses a near-term threat to euro-zone government bonds, we still expect their yields to be lower, in general, by the end of this year. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM yields will end 2023 below current levels We expect lower global risk appetite, as well as rising country-specific risk premia in some cases, to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year local-currency government bonds in emerging markets... 21st December 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Assessing the fall-out from the change to the BoJ’s YCC The surge in government bond yields around the world in response to today’s decision by the Bank of Japan to tweak its policy of Yield Curve Control highlights the risks to international markets posed... 20th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The World in 2023: What to look for in financial markets Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic debate in 2023 – falling inflation and future monetary policy loosening – are now largely priced into markets in the US. The... 15th December 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update What re-opening might mean for China’s markets We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields... 14th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US corporate bond spreads will widen again Although US corporate bond spreads have been falling since mid-October, we expect them to rise again before long as the global economy slips into recession. 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury rally may almost have run its course We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease. 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the timing and scale of a sustained rebound in the S&P 500 We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. In view of the... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s zero-COVID stance and global markets If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign bond yields may be nearing their peak Having increased sharply throughout the year, we think that emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields will probably only increase by a little more in the first half of next year, despite a... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think recession will derail the equity rally We’re sticking with our view that the equity market rally will go into reverse as the world economy slips into a recession. 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
