Asset Allocation Update On the timing and scale of a sustained rebound in the S&P 500 We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. In view of the... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s zero-COVID stance and global markets If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign bond yields may be nearing their peak Having increased sharply throughout the year, we think that emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields will probably only increase by a little more in the first half of next year, despite a... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think recession will derail the equity rally We’re sticking with our view that the equity market rally will go into reverse as the world economy slips into a recession. 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Yield curve control pressure may ease further We don’t expect the 10-year JGB yield to rise above the top of the Bank of Japan’s tolerance band, and think it may even fall back to the middle of that band next year as yields continue to decline... 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s stock market recovery to last China’s equities have received a boost recently from speculation that the country will ease its strict zero-COVID policy, but we don’t think this marks the start of a more sustained rally; we forecast... 10th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Tougher times may lie ahead for Brazil’s markets Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The changing drivers of this year’s sell-off in the S&P 500 Downward revisions to expectations for earnings have taken a toll in the second half this year so far on the S&P 500, which had been under pressure in the first half from a discount-rate-driven drop... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update Will the UK’s new PM still be faced with a risk premium? Although the extra risk premia on the UK’s sovereign bonds and currency that emerged in the wake of the UK’s “mini”-budget have partly unwound, this doesn’t necessarily mean Gilts and sterling are set... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM Asian equities may drop further We think benchmark equity indices in Taiwan, Korea and India will fall a bit further over the remainder of this year and into 2023, as the global economy slips into a recession. 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What still-hot inflation means for US Treasuries Despite the hot September US CPI print from yesterday, we still expect Treasury yields to drop back over time. And we think the drop will mostly be driven by falls in the real yield, rather than... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE’s gilt operations – easy to start, harder to end Given that the surge in gilt yields that has forced the Bank of England to intervene in the market was initially driven by the government’s loose fiscal policies, it makes sense that the Bank may not... 11th October 2022 · 8 mins read
