Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The latest PMIs suggest that global manufacturing activity remained strong in March, adding to evidence that the global economy is in good shape. Surveys also suggest that pipeline inflationary... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Mar.) The “flash” PMIs, published by Markit earlier today, suggest that a strong and broadbased global recovery has continued in March, even though the numbers for Japan and the US slipped a little compared... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Strong employment growth still not lifting wages everywhere Labour markets have continued to recover in all of the four major advanced economies in recent years but prospects for wage growth still differ considerably. The rise in earnings growth in the US is... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could the world cope with another oil price slump? The recent drop in oil prices has raised the question of how the world economy would cope with a another sustained slump in prices. While some big oil producers would take a hit, and inflation would... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we now in a global tightening cycle? There is an increasingly common view that we are on the cusp of a global policy tightening cycle. However, while we no longer expect many central banks to loosen policy further, we expect interest... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 business as usual despite Trump? The most noteworthy thing about this weekend’s gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors in Baden-Baden may be that it turns out to be as uneventful as previous G20 meetings. If so... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the latest survey data too good to be true? The most recent retail sales and industrial production data for several advanced economies have not been as strong as the business surveys. While the reasons for this discrepancy are not clear, it... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Global manufacturing continued to expand very strongly in February, according to the latest batch of PMIs, published today. Indeed, the PMIs of nearly all the major advanced and emerging economies... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the recent surge in global growth? The striking pick-up in world GDP growth since early last year is partly due to China’s policy stimulus and the stabilisation of oil prices, but it also reflects the recovery from the financial crisis... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Steady bank lending still supporting global growth Credit growth has slowed in the US in recent months, but has edged higher in other advanced economies. As a result, we expect overall credit growth in advanced economies to continue at around 5% or so... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Feb.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit earlier today, point to continued strong growth in advanced economies in February and are consistent with our view that global economic growth is set... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is QE about to go into reverse? While some policymakers have floated the idea that the Fed should begin to shrink its balance sheet soon, we suspect that it will proceed very slowly. And as other central banks will be adding to... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Faster nominal GDP growth helping to bring down debt ratios Nominal GDP growth in advanced economies has picked up over the past twelve months or so and is likely to remain fairly rapid during the coming two years. This should help households, firms and... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update President Trump has little power over currency markets The new US administration has made a lot of noise about currencies during its first few weeks. But there is little chance of it engineering a move away from the system of free-floating exchange rates... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Outlook for oil prices still benign for world economy OPEC is unlikely to sustain the production cuts which it implemented in January, but we expect a combination of rising global demand and increased US shale production to keep prices fairly stable for... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for consumer spending? Household spending has picked up in advanced economies recently, and a combination of strong labour markets, lower debt burdens and loose monetary conditions means the outlook is fairly bright. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
