Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing growth in advanced economies started Q3 on a strong note. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump stimulus in jeopardy, but global fiscal policy being eased In our last Global Policy Watch, published in April, we argued that aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies was likely to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. Since then, the chances... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will others follow the Bank of Canada? The Bank of Canada may end up reversing the rate hike it made yesterday. But central banks elsewhere are likely to begin raising rates over the next year or two and are less likely to reverse course... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Germany’s surplus a global problem? Germany’s current account surplus has been quite stable in recent years and has not, therefore, been a major drag on global demand. That said, in the unlikely event that it significantly eases up on... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Still waiting for stronger wage pressures Labour market data released in the US and Japan today underline that wage inflation remains elusive throughout the developed world. We still think that average earnings growth is likely to pick up in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump unifying the G20 in favour of free trade Few observers will be expecting any policy breakthroughs at the G20 leaders’ summit in Hamburg this weekend, given the US administration’s scepticism about multilateral cooperation. But for now it... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation? It is widely thought that recessions are generally triggered by central banks stepping on the brakes in response to rising inflation. But many recessions have not been preceded by an increase in... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (June) The purchasing managers’ indices for June provide further evidence that a broad-based pick-up in economic activity is underway in advanced economies, but that it is not generally feeding through to a... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are higher bond yields a welcome sign? We expect government bond yields to rise further during the coming months than they have done in the past couple of days. But rather than causing growth to slow, higher bond yields will be a sign that... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we still worry about the banks? Recent developments have underlined that the banking sector is far better capitalised in the US than in the euro-zone. But the more important point is that the financial sector has strengthened in... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer spending should continue to hold up well After slowing sharply in the first quarter, household spending growth appears to have rebounded in the second. A combination of strong labour markets, low household debt burdens and steady growth of... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jun.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that the recovery in advanced economies continued strongly in June. 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now Janet Yellen’s remarks about the case for reconsidering the Fed’s inflation target have generated some attention this week. But in practice, there is little prospect of the inflation target being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Conditions to remain loose despite further tightening by the Fed Even though the US Fed will start to reduce its asset holdings, probably in Q4, global monetary conditions are set to remain accommodative for a while yet. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending in... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is monetary policy really so accommodative? It is often assumed that monetary policy is highly accommodative simply because nominal interest rates are very low. But if the neutral real interest rate has fallen, monetary policy may not be as... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
