Global Economics Update Should we stop worrying about politics? The lesson of 2016 is that political shocks often have limited economic consequences. This implies that a period of political chaos or paralysis in Washington may not make much difference to the US... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What use are the new “future output” PMIs? The new “future output” indices, released by Markit alongside their usual complement of PMI data, at best track, rather than lead changes in economic growth. But they do appear to provide a useful... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How bad will the fallout be from a US border tax? If the US introduces an across-the-board tariff or border adjustment tax, world trade would not com to a standstill. We suspect that other governments would tread carefully before ratcheting up a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Business surveys published by Markit earlier today point to a broad-based pick-up in growth at the beginning of the year, with advanced economies in particular gaining momentum. They also signal a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth ended 2016 on a high, outlook quite good We estimate that world GDP growth was unchanged in Q4 last year at around 3½% annualised. This is well below its pre-crisis average, but is fairly rapid by more recent standards. What’s more, we... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of a Trump Accord? For now, we don’t know what the US policy will be towards the dollar. If Donald Trump seriously wants a cheaper currency, the best way to achieve it might be through a multilateral agreement... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jan.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growth in the world’s largest advanced economies started the year on a positive note. As such, they do nothing to change our view... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reconsidering the threat to global trade from Trump On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, we still have little detail on what trade policies he will pursue. Here we set out the potential global impact of the various measures he and his team have... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we now worry about rising inflation? Consumer price inflation is set to rise sharply in most advanced economies, with the US rate likely to reach around 3% by the middle of this year. However, talk of “global reflation” seems wide of the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The final PMIs for December 2016 add to evidence that the world economy was in good nick at the end of last year and that price pressures have increased. We expect global growth to pick up a bit this... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key economic calls for 2017 We expect growth in the US to pick up next year as a result of Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus, but in several other advanced economies it is likely to slow. Although headline inflation is set... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Dec.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growth in advanced economies picked up in December and provide more evidence that the world economy is ending the year on a strong... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is US dollar strength a serious threat to the world economy? Some have suggested that further appreciation of the dollar would pose a significant threat to the outlook for the world economy. In contrast, we think that the US currency is unlikely to strengthen... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose despite Trump win The latest data show that global monetary conditions remain exceptionally accommodative. Monetary aggregates and bank lending to the private sector are rising at a steady pace, and although government... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update OPEC agreement not such a big deal for the world economy Global oil prices jumped as much as 19% this week as OPEC finalised an agreement to cut production. However, this is not as big a deal as the headlines imply. Prices are only a little higher than they... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Business surveys released earlier today extend the run of upbeat data on the world economy. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI edged higher from 52.0 to 52.1 in November and is consistent on past form... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
