Global Economics Update Other major central banks in no hurry to follow the Fed The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates again yesterday does not change the big picture that global monetary policy will remain highly accommodative. We expect policy rates to stay close to zero in... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the G7 heading for a new growth record? In each of the past three years, all of the G7 group of advanced economies have posted positive GDP growth. We expect these expansions to continue until at least 2019, which would be the third-longest... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) The final PMIs for May point to a further pick-up in growth in the euro-zone, led by Germany, and to steady or accelerating growth in most other advanced economies. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans not a big concern News that the Fed will proceed very cautiously in scaling back its huge balance sheet does not change our view that US monetary policy will be tightened more rapidly than the markets anticipate this... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on PMIs versus GDP figures The conflicting signals given by business surveys and national accounts during the first few months of the year mean that we cannot have absolute confidence in either. But we suspect that the PMIs... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (May) Preliminary surveys suggest that manufacturing conditions in advanced economies are in good shape and point to a rebound in economic growth in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the euro-zone about to boost the global economy? While there are encouraging signs that the euro-zone is becoming less of a drag on the global economy, there are reasons not to expect a substantial boost from the region. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global credit conditions supportive despite slowdown in US Credit growth has slowed sharply in the US in recent months, due to weaker demand for bank loans from households and non-financial companies. However, in most other advanced economies it is rising... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Quick thoughts on the OPEC extension Oil prices jumped today following the announcement by Saudi Arabia and Russia that they favour extending the current production cuts until March 2018. Although this is not a game-changer for the oil... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is inflation really rising? There is a widespread view that the world is in a period of “reflation” in which both economic activity and inflation are picking up. But there is little or no evidence of a sustained increase in... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the G7 due a recession? It is often claimed that the current expansion has lasted so long that a recession must be just around the corner. But history suggests that there is no such hard-and-fast rule. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with slowdown in China The slowdown in China which now appears to be underway may prompt periodic bouts of nerves in financial and commodity markets. But we expect China’s growth rate to slow only gradually, rather than to... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Despite the dip in survey data in April, global manufacturing conditions are still in good shape. We expect world GDP growth to rebound in Q2 following a weak first quarter. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth likely to rebound after weak Q1 Global growth slowed quite sharply in the first quarter of 2017, largely due to weaker activity in China and the US. However, we expect growth in the world as a whole to rebound in Q2. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fiscal policy likely to be eased slightly this year and next We expect aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. President Trump will not succeed in passing the “phenomenal” tax cuts which he has promised... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Apr.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that the recovery in advanced economies continued in April. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
