Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The latest batch of manufacturing surveys suggests that advanced economies continued to do very well in October. As a result, the global manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since early 2011... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank lending still rising steadily Credit growth has continued to pick up gradually in the euro-zone and Japan, and more strongly in the UK. In the US, the slowdown in growth in lending to the private sector has eased recently. 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy to remain in good shape The world economy looks to have maintained momentum in Q3. We expect another strong quarter to round off the year, and then for global growth to slow only modestly throughout 2018. 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Catalonia impasse is not a new euro-zone crisis We think that financial markets are right to take a relaxed view of the constitutional crisis in Catalonia. The economic fallout for Spain itself should be small, and the risks to the euro-zone are... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Global QE” to slow only gradually Taking account of the ECB’s decision yesterday and of recent changes to our forecasts for Japan, we still think that the scale of central bank asset purchases under QE programmes in advanced economies... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Oct.) Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing growth in advanced economies started Q4 on a strong note. However, they also indicate that price pressures are still subdued. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for fiscal policy? Fiscal policy in advanced economies is likely to be slightly accommodative next year, providing a benign backdrop for the world as monetary support is withdrawn. But any direct benefits will be modest... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Do rate hikes lead to recessions? Interest rate hikes are commonly thought to cause recessions. However, the track record of G7 tightening cycles shows that this has usually not been the case. 12th October 2017 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Three quick points on the IMF’s latest projections The tone of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, published today, was upbeat and in line with our view that the outlook for the global economy is reasonably bright. But the Fund’s projections... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The latest PMIs, published by Markit today, suggest that global manufacturing growth remained strong in September, adding to evidence that the world economy ended the third quarter on a strong note. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global QE to remain positive for a while yet Although the Fed is starting to shrink its balance sheet and the ECB is likely to taper its asset purchases next year, the monetary base in the world as a whole should continue expanding at least... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the recent jump in oil prices The latest rise in oil prices reflects concerns about Kurdish supply and hopes for another extension of OPEC’s output cuts, neither of which may have a lasting influence on prices. But the oil market... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Sep.) Business surveys published today for the euro-zone and the US suggest that growth in advanced economies was quite strong in September and that price pressures may have picked up a bit. 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unwinding QE won’t reverse its effects The Fed’s reversal of QE is another sign that the world is inching away from ultra-loose monetary policy. But it is planning to proceed slowly and avoid surprises, and no other central bank is likely... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How far will the global tightening cycle go? Although we expect the Fed to raise its key policy rate more rapidly than financial markets anticipate next year, our forecast is for it to peak at only 2.25-2.50%, in 2019. In the euro-zone and Japan... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about North Korea The escalation of tensions between North Korea and the US has once again raised the issues of how big the threat is and where the risks lie. In this Update we answer six key questions. 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
