Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Global manufacturing continued to expand strongly in August, according to the latest PMIs, adding to evidence that global growth held up well in Q3. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household finances quite strong, despite low savings rates The aggregate savings rate in advanced economies has fallen sharply over the past two years, but household finances are still in much better shape than they were before the financial crisis. Claims... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, point to continued strong growth in the world’s largest advanced economies in August. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer confidence still resilient Consumer confidence in advanced economies has reached its second highest level since 2001. This suggests that consumption growth will hold up well despite subdued real income growth. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is the Taylor Rule telling us? In recent years, policy rates in advanced economies have been set much lower than the levels implied by John Taylor’s original rule, which he formulated in the early 1990s. But once we account for the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit conditions set to remain supportive Although the minutes of the Fed’s and ECB’s latest policy meetings are consistent with our view that their unconventional policy support will be scaled back in Q4 and early next year, respectively... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update When will core inflation pick up? Although data released today showed that core CPI inflation remained weak in the US in July, we still think that it will pick up substantially next year. Outside the US, however, it will probably rise... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit conditions to stay loose even as QE is scaled back Monetary conditions remain highly supportive of economic activity, and should continue to be so in the years ahead. While we expect the Fed to begin winding down its balance sheet in Q4 and the ECB to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest PMIs, published today, suggest that global manufacturing growth continues to be quite rapid and add to evidence that the world economy has plenty of momentum. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing growth in advanced economies started Q3 on a strong note. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump stimulus in jeopardy, but global fiscal policy being eased In our last Global Policy Watch, published in April, we argued that aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies was likely to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. Since then, the chances... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will others follow the Bank of Canada? The Bank of Canada may end up reversing the rate hike it made yesterday. But central banks elsewhere are likely to begin raising rates over the next year or two and are less likely to reverse course... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Germany’s surplus a global problem? Germany’s current account surplus has been quite stable in recent years and has not, therefore, been a major drag on global demand. That said, in the unlikely event that it significantly eases up on... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Still waiting for stronger wage pressures Labour market data released in the US and Japan today underline that wage inflation remains elusive throughout the developed world. We still think that average earnings growth is likely to pick up in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump unifying the G20 in favour of free trade Few observers will be expecting any policy breakthroughs at the G20 leaders’ summit in Hamburg this weekend, given the US administration’s scepticism about multilateral cooperation. But for now it... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
