Global Economics Update IMF forecasts too optimistic (as usual) We broadly agree with the forecasts for global growth in 2018 which the IMF published today. But we think it is being over-optimistic about both global and US economic growth next year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF forecasts too optimistic (as usual) We broadly agree with the forecasts for global growth in 2018 which the IMF published today. But we think it is being over-optimistic about both global and US economic growth next year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A primer on Federal government shutdowns It is still possible that Congress will reach a late deal to avoid a partial government shutdown beginning this weekend, but the chances of agreement seem to be slipping away. 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bitcoin: how worried/excited should we be? Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil at $70pb is not a threat to the global economy We expect oil prices to fall back from their three-year high in the coming months due to increasing supply. But even if prices stayed around $70pb, they would not endanger the global economy. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil at $70pb is not a threat to the global economy We expect oil prices to fall back from their three-year high in the coming months due to increasing supply. But even if prices stayed around $70pb, they would not endanger the global economy. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank lending still going strong Monetary conditions should stay accommodative this year, even though the ECB has scaled back its asset purchases this month and the Fed will continue to gradually reduce its balance sheet. Bank... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the global recovery de-synchronise in 2018? While the global economy is set to grow strongly again in 2018, the recovery is likely to de-synchronise somewhat as China slows before the US, and Europe remains strong. This could have important... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update 2018 should be another good year for consumers We estimate that household spending growth in the world’s major economies picked up from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2017. In 2018, it is likely to grow at a similarly decent pace to last year, as real... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI rose to a near seven-year high in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2017 in very good shape. We expect 2018 to be another year of strong... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2018 and beyond We expect 2018 to be another year of strong global growth, helped by a steady rise in employment and supportive policies, including a small fiscal stimulus in the US. In most advanced economies core... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should other central banks follow the Fed? There are reasons why the US Federal Reserve should be further along the path to policy normalisation than other major central banks. But there are also reasons why they should not lag too far behind. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Dec.) Preliminary business surveys for December, which were published today, indicate that advanced economies in aggregate ended 2017 growing at a heady pace of around 4% annualised. They also suggest that... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why are confident households not spending more? Consumer confidence has surged to its highest level since 2000 in advanced economies but consumption growth has not picked up. We think this is largely due to weak real wage growth. As tight labour... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bitcoin bubble is a curiosity, but not a big worry Unlike the bubbles in the tech sector in the late-1990s and in US residential property a few years later, a bursting of the bitcoin bubble should not have systemic, macroeconomic implications. The... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit growing at a healthy pace Monetary and credit conditions remain supportive and should continue to be so, even though the stock of assets purchased under global QE programmes should peak in the coming years. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
