Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The final PMIs for December 2016 add to evidence that the world economy was in good nick at the end of last year and that price pressures have increased. We expect global growth to pick up a bit this... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key economic calls for 2017 We expect growth in the US to pick up next year as a result of Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus, but in several other advanced economies it is likely to slow. Although headline inflation is set... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Dec.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growth in advanced economies picked up in December and provide more evidence that the world economy is ending the year on a strong... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is US dollar strength a serious threat to the world economy? Some have suggested that further appreciation of the dollar would pose a significant threat to the outlook for the world economy. In contrast, we think that the US currency is unlikely to strengthen... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose despite Trump win The latest data show that global monetary conditions remain exceptionally accommodative. Monetary aggregates and bank lending to the private sector are rising at a steady pace, and although government... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update OPEC agreement not such a big deal for the world economy Global oil prices jumped as much as 19% this week as OPEC finalised an agreement to cut production. However, this is not as big a deal as the headlines imply. Prices are only a little higher than they... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Business surveys released earlier today extend the run of upbeat data on the world economy. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI edged higher from 52.0 to 52.1 in November and is consistent on past form... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of Trump’s victory The prospect of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency has prompted us to raise our forecasts for US growth and inflation but we have left our economic forecasts for the rest of the world... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Nov.) The “flash” PMIs for the euro-zone and US which were published earlier today reinforce the message that the world economy seems to be expanding at a decent pace in Q4, even before any “Trump stimulus”... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the bond “bloodbath” mean for the economy? The slump in global bond prices after the US elections and the accompanying rise in long-term interest rates will cause some pain both to existing bondholders and future borrowers. Nonetheless... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will Trump’s stimulus boost the world economy? Since Tuesday’s election, financial markets have been buoyed by hopes that Donald Trump will unleash a huge fiscal stimulus. We think a significantly higher US budget deficit is now likely, which may... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global economic consequences of Trump’s victory Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has, so far, had less impact on financial markets than most anticipated. We suspect that it has also made little difference to the immediate... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of “reflation” in the US, but not elsewhere The jump in US average earnings growth, reported earlier today, is the latest indication that inflation there is on the rise. But aside from stronger oil prices, there is little sign of a broader pick... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct. Final) The latest business surveys suggest that global manufacturing growth picked up last month. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, released earlier today, climbed from 51.0 to 52.0 in October, its highest... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout from a Trump victory? A Trump victory in the US elections next Tuesday may send shockwaves through financial markets, at least temporarily. But the economic consequences for the world as a whole would be less dramatic. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was Q3 as good as it gets for global growth? We estimate that world GDP growth accelerated slightly in the third quarter, due to the ongoing policyled rebound in China and a pick-up in activity in the US. However, the expansion will probably... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
