Global Economics Update Taking stock of Trump’s victory The prospect of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency has prompted us to raise our forecasts for US growth and inflation but we have left our economic forecasts for the rest of the world... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Nov.) The “flash” PMIs for the euro-zone and US which were published earlier today reinforce the message that the world economy seems to be expanding at a decent pace in Q4, even before any “Trump stimulus”... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the bond “bloodbath” mean for the economy? The slump in global bond prices after the US elections and the accompanying rise in long-term interest rates will cause some pain both to existing bondholders and future borrowers. Nonetheless... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will Trump’s stimulus boost the world economy? Since Tuesday’s election, financial markets have been buoyed by hopes that Donald Trump will unleash a huge fiscal stimulus. We think a significantly higher US budget deficit is now likely, which may... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global economic consequences of Trump’s victory Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has, so far, had less impact on financial markets than most anticipated. We suspect that it has also made little difference to the immediate... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of “reflation” in the US, but not elsewhere The jump in US average earnings growth, reported earlier today, is the latest indication that inflation there is on the rise. But aside from stronger oil prices, there is little sign of a broader pick... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct. Final) The latest business surveys suggest that global manufacturing growth picked up last month. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, released earlier today, climbed from 51.0 to 52.0 in October, its highest... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout from a Trump victory? A Trump victory in the US elections next Tuesday may send shockwaves through financial markets, at least temporarily. But the economic consequences for the world as a whole would be less dramatic. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was Q3 as good as it gets for global growth? We estimate that world GDP growth accelerated slightly in the third quarter, due to the ongoing policyled rebound in China and a pick-up in activity in the US. However, the expansion will probably... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World still awash with liquidity even as Fed prepares to hike Broad money and credit have been growing at a steady pace, against the backdrop of exceptionally loose global monetary conditions. In advanced economies, growth in lending to the private sector has... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Oct.) Preliminary survey data, which were published today, point to a significant acceleration in activity in advanced economies in October. 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tide turning towards stimulus With central banks running out of firepower, public finances in a better state than they have been for a long time and sovereign bond yields exceptionally low, it is not surprising that some... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fallout from higher oil prices (mostly) good news The recovery in oil prices is a mixed blessing for global growth. We estimate that the contribution of energy costs to annual CPI inflation in the advanced economies will flip from an average of minus... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary policy and conditions still ultra-loose Global monetary conditions are still exceptionally accommodative and are set tor emain so even if the Fed raises rates in December, as we think is likely. Sovereign bond yields are close to record... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the IMF's latest forecasts? The tone of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, published today, was decidedly gloomy. But we suspect that their forecasts will need to be lowered further over the coming year or so. 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep. 16) The manufacturing PMIs published today and late last week suggest that global growth was broadly steady in September. The biggest news was from the US where the ISM manufacturing survey rebounded... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
