Global Economics Update High consumer confidence bodes well for the world economy Consumer confidence has risen in recent months in much of the developed world. This bodes well for household spending and global growth prospects. Consumer confidence indices are usually composites of... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Have inflation worries gone for good? The recent decline in global inflation expectations has reflected some benign news both on inflation itself and on its key drivers. But even if inflation expectations fall further, markets should be... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s forecasts reflect a bright economic outlook The IMF’s latest projections for global growth, published today, are in line with ours (using official figures for China) and point to healthy global GDP growth of about 3½% in the coming year or two. 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Economics likely to trump geopolitics Geopolitical concerns have boosted demand for safe-haven assets in the past week, and have pushed up measures of implied volatility in equity markets. But experience suggests that geopolitical events... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money and credit expanding at a healthy pace Global monetary conditions remain supportive for the world economy. In the four major advanced economies, bank lending to both households and non-financial companies is expanding steadily, and... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A brighter outlook, and higher growth forecasts Upbeat economic data for the first quarter of the year have prompted us to raise our forecasts for growth in several economies. But underlying wage and price pressures remain exceptionally low outside... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the credit data signalling a slowdown? Aggregate measures of credit growth in advanced economies have slowed sharply in the past month or two. But this is almost entirely due to weakness in the US, which we do not expect to last. What’s... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The latest PMIs suggest that global manufacturing activity remained strong in March, adding to evidence that the global economy is in good shape. Surveys also suggest that pipeline inflationary... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Mar.) The “flash” PMIs, published by Markit earlier today, suggest that a strong and broadbased global recovery has continued in March, even though the numbers for Japan and the US slipped a little compared... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Strong employment growth still not lifting wages everywhere Labour markets have continued to recover in all of the four major advanced economies in recent years but prospects for wage growth still differ considerably. The rise in earnings growth in the US is... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could the world cope with another oil price slump? The recent drop in oil prices has raised the question of how the world economy would cope with a another sustained slump in prices. While some big oil producers would take a hit, and inflation would... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we now in a global tightening cycle? There is an increasingly common view that we are on the cusp of a global policy tightening cycle. However, while we no longer expect many central banks to loosen policy further, we expect interest... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 business as usual despite Trump? The most noteworthy thing about this weekend’s gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors in Baden-Baden may be that it turns out to be as uneventful as previous G20 meetings. If so... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the latest survey data too good to be true? The most recent retail sales and industrial production data for several advanced economies have not been as strong as the business surveys. While the reasons for this discrepancy are not clear, it... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Global manufacturing continued to expand very strongly in February, according to the latest batch of PMIs, published today. Indeed, the PMIs of nearly all the major advanced and emerging economies... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the recent surge in global growth? The striking pick-up in world GDP growth since early last year is partly due to China’s policy stimulus and the stabilisation of oil prices, but it also reflects the recovery from the financial crisis... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
