Global Economics Update Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation? It is widely thought that recessions are generally triggered by central banks stepping on the brakes in response to rising inflation. But many recessions have not been preceded by an increase in... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (June) The purchasing managers’ indices for June provide further evidence that a broad-based pick-up in economic activity is underway in advanced economies, but that it is not generally feeding through to a... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are higher bond yields a welcome sign? We expect government bond yields to rise further during the coming months than they have done in the past couple of days. But rather than causing growth to slow, higher bond yields will be a sign that... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we still worry about the banks? Recent developments have underlined that the banking sector is far better capitalised in the US than in the euro-zone. But the more important point is that the financial sector has strengthened in... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer spending should continue to hold up well After slowing sharply in the first quarter, household spending growth appears to have rebounded in the second. A combination of strong labour markets, low household debt burdens and steady growth of... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jun.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that the recovery in advanced economies continued strongly in June. 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now Janet Yellen’s remarks about the case for reconsidering the Fed’s inflation target have generated some attention this week. But in practice, there is little prospect of the inflation target being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Conditions to remain loose despite further tightening by the Fed Even though the US Fed will start to reduce its asset holdings, probably in Q4, global monetary conditions are set to remain accommodative for a while yet. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending in... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is monetary policy really so accommodative? It is often assumed that monetary policy is highly accommodative simply because nominal interest rates are very low. But if the neutral real interest rate has fallen, monetary policy may not be as... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Other major central banks in no hurry to follow the Fed The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates again yesterday does not change the big picture that global monetary policy will remain highly accommodative. We expect policy rates to stay close to zero in... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the G7 heading for a new growth record? In each of the past three years, all of the G7 group of advanced economies have posted positive GDP growth. We expect these expansions to continue until at least 2019, which would be the third-longest... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) The final PMIs for May point to a further pick-up in growth in the euro-zone, led by Germany, and to steady or accelerating growth in most other advanced economies. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans not a big concern News that the Fed will proceed very cautiously in scaling back its huge balance sheet does not change our view that US monetary policy will be tightened more rapidly than the markets anticipate this... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on PMIs versus GDP figures The conflicting signals given by business surveys and national accounts during the first few months of the year mean that we cannot have absolute confidence in either. But we suspect that the PMIs... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (May) Preliminary surveys suggest that manufacturing conditions in advanced economies are in good shape and point to a rebound in economic growth in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the euro-zone about to boost the global economy? While there are encouraging signs that the euro-zone is becoming less of a drag on the global economy, there are reasons not to expect a substantial boost from the region. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
