Global Economics Update Would President Trump start a trade war? It is impossible to be sure what Donald Trump would actually do if he became US President but ourbest guess is that he would back away from his most radical proposals on trade policy. And even if he... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Sep. 16) Flash PMIs published today point to a small pick-up in growth in the manufacturingsector in Japan and the euro-zone, but a decline in the US. Advanced economies overallare still struggling, whereas... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for consumers remain reasonably bright Weak US retail sales data for August, released earlier today, were the latest sign that the consumer recoveryin the developed world is losing pace. Even so, the prospects for household spending over... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the pendulum swinging towards fiscal stimulus? With global growth still lacklustre, monetary policy seemingly ineffective and government bond yields unprecedentedly low, the case for fiscal stimulus has become more compelling. Partly as a result... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: lots of talk but not much action Without a crisis to concentrate minds, G20 leaders meeting in Hangzhou are unlikely to make any major policy breakthroughs. The truth is that there is little appetite for coordinated policy action... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Business surveys published earlier today paint a mixed picture of global manufacturing conditions. Activity in China appears to have stabilised, but the sharp fall in the US ISM index suggests, at... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lending growth continues to recover Money and credit growth in the major advanced economies have held up remarkably well this year, despite overall economic growth remaining lacklustre. Indeed, lending to households is now expanding... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from Jackson Hole This week’s Jackson Hole conference is unlikely to shine much light on the immediate outlook formonetary policy either in the US or elsewhere. But it will underline how concerned many centralbankers... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Preliminary survey data for August, which were published today, suggest that economic growth remained slow but steady in advanced economies. Meanwhile, alternative survey evidence for the UK has been... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the global slowdown into perspective The global economy is set to expand by less than 3% for the second year running in 2016. That is a lot less than the 4%+ growth rates seen a decade ago. But in the grand sweep of history, current... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global imbalances to remain small by past standards The world’s main current account imbalances look set to widen a bit in the coming years but should not pose a serious threat to the global economy. Oil producers’ surpluses probably won’t reappear... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will wage growth ever pick up? Unemployment has continued to fall steadily in most advanced economies, but there is still some sparecapacity left. Moreover, the link between unemployment and wage growth is weaker than in the past... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Business surveys published today suggest that global manufacturing growth picked upin July, bucking the near-continuous downward trend seen since 2013. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth held up well in Q2 National accounts data released in recent weeks suggest that global growth edged up in Q2. Butprospects for the rest of the year are mixed. The euro-zone economy will probably slow further and theUK... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update QE to get a new lease of life? We expect the ECB and Bank of Japan to step up their asset purchases a bit in the coming months and the Bank of England (BoE) to resume its QE programme after a four-year break. Indeed, “global QE”... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from Brexit: one month on It is early days, but the limited data released since the EU referendum, as well as the reaction in financial markets, support our view that the economic implications of Brexit outside the UK will be... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
