Global Economics Update Steady bank lending still supporting global growth Credit growth has slowed in the US in recent months, but has edged higher in other advanced economies. As a result, we expect overall credit growth in advanced economies to continue at around 5% or so... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Feb.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit earlier today, point to continued strong growth in advanced economies in February and are consistent with our view that global economic growth is set... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is QE about to go into reverse? While some policymakers have floated the idea that the Fed should begin to shrink its balance sheet soon, we suspect that it will proceed very slowly. And as other central banks will be adding to... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Faster nominal GDP growth helping to bring down debt ratios Nominal GDP growth in advanced economies has picked up over the past twelve months or so and is likely to remain fairly rapid during the coming two years. This should help households, firms and... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update President Trump has little power over currency markets The new US administration has made a lot of noise about currencies during its first few weeks. But there is little chance of it engineering a move away from the system of free-floating exchange rates... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Outlook for oil prices still benign for world economy OPEC is unlikely to sustain the production cuts which it implemented in January, but we expect a combination of rising global demand and increased US shale production to keep prices fairly stable for... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for consumer spending? Household spending has picked up in advanced economies recently, and a combination of strong labour markets, lower debt burdens and loose monetary conditions means the outlook is fairly bright. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we stop worrying about politics? The lesson of 2016 is that political shocks often have limited economic consequences. This implies that a period of political chaos or paralysis in Washington may not make much difference to the US... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What use are the new “future output” PMIs? The new “future output” indices, released by Markit alongside their usual complement of PMI data, at best track, rather than lead changes in economic growth. But they do appear to provide a useful... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How bad will the fallout be from a US border tax? If the US introduces an across-the-board tariff or border adjustment tax, world trade would not com to a standstill. We suspect that other governments would tread carefully before ratcheting up a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Business surveys published by Markit earlier today point to a broad-based pick-up in growth at the beginning of the year, with advanced economies in particular gaining momentum. They also signal a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth ended 2016 on a high, outlook quite good We estimate that world GDP growth was unchanged in Q4 last year at around 3½% annualised. This is well below its pre-crisis average, but is fairly rapid by more recent standards. What’s more, we... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of a Trump Accord? For now, we don’t know what the US policy will be towards the dollar. If Donald Trump seriously wants a cheaper currency, the best way to achieve it might be through a multilateral agreement... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jan.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growth in the world’s largest advanced economies started the year on a positive note. As such, they do nothing to change our view... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reconsidering the threat to global trade from Trump On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, we still have little detail on what trade policies he will pursue. Here we set out the potential global impact of the various measures he and his team have... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we now worry about rising inflation? Consumer price inflation is set to rise sharply in most advanced economies, with the US rate likely to reach around 3% by the middle of this year. However, talk of “global reflation” seems wide of the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
