Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The latest PMIs, published by Markit today, suggest that global manufacturing growth remained strong in September, adding to evidence that the world economy ended the third quarter on a strong note. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global QE to remain positive for a while yet Although the Fed is starting to shrink its balance sheet and the ECB is likely to taper its asset purchases next year, the monetary base in the world as a whole should continue expanding at least... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the recent jump in oil prices The latest rise in oil prices reflects concerns about Kurdish supply and hopes for another extension of OPEC’s output cuts, neither of which may have a lasting influence on prices. But the oil market... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Sep.) Business surveys published today for the euro-zone and the US suggest that growth in advanced economies was quite strong in September and that price pressures may have picked up a bit. 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unwinding QE won’t reverse its effects The Fed’s reversal of QE is another sign that the world is inching away from ultra-loose monetary policy. But it is planning to proceed slowly and avoid surprises, and no other central bank is likely... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How far will the global tightening cycle go? Although we expect the Fed to raise its key policy rate more rapidly than financial markets anticipate next year, our forecast is for it to peak at only 2.25-2.50%, in 2019. In the euro-zone and Japan... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about North Korea The escalation of tensions between North Korea and the US has once again raised the issues of how big the threat is and where the risks lie. In this Update we answer six key questions. 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Global manufacturing continued to expand strongly in August, according to the latest PMIs, adding to evidence that global growth held up well in Q3. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household finances quite strong, despite low savings rates The aggregate savings rate in advanced economies has fallen sharply over the past two years, but household finances are still in much better shape than they were before the financial crisis. Claims... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, point to continued strong growth in the world’s largest advanced economies in August. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer confidence still resilient Consumer confidence in advanced economies has reached its second highest level since 2001. This suggests that consumption growth will hold up well despite subdued real income growth. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is the Taylor Rule telling us? In recent years, policy rates in advanced economies have been set much lower than the levels implied by John Taylor’s original rule, which he formulated in the early 1990s. But once we account for the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit conditions set to remain supportive Although the minutes of the Fed’s and ECB’s latest policy meetings are consistent with our view that their unconventional policy support will be scaled back in Q4 and early next year, respectively... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update When will core inflation pick up? Although data released today showed that core CPI inflation remained weak in the US in July, we still think that it will pick up substantially next year. Outside the US, however, it will probably rise... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit conditions to stay loose even as QE is scaled back Monetary conditions remain highly supportive of economic activity, and should continue to be so in the years ahead. While we expect the Fed to begin winding down its balance sheet in Q4 and the ECB to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest PMIs, published today, suggest that global manufacturing growth continues to be quite rapid and add to evidence that the world economy has plenty of momentum. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
