Global Economics Update Should other central banks follow the Fed? There are reasons why the US Federal Reserve should be further along the path to policy normalisation than other major central banks. But there are also reasons why they should not lag too far behind. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Dec.) Preliminary business surveys for December, which were published today, indicate that advanced economies in aggregate ended 2017 growing at a heady pace of around 4% annualised. They also suggest that... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why are confident households not spending more? Consumer confidence has surged to its highest level since 2000 in advanced economies but consumption growth has not picked up. We think this is largely due to weak real wage growth. As tight labour... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bitcoin bubble is a curiosity, but not a big worry Unlike the bubbles in the tech sector in the late-1990s and in US residential property a few years later, a bursting of the bitcoin bubble should not have systemic, macroeconomic implications. The... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit growing at a healthy pace Monetary and credit conditions remain supportive and should continue to be so, even though the stock of assets purchased under global QE programmes should peak in the coming years. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) There has been no let-up in the fast pace of global growth in November. Manufacturing PMIs remained strong and/or increased almost everywhere and the global index is at its highest level since March... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Nov.) Preliminary surveys, published by Markit yesterday and today, point to a further pick-up in economic growth in the world’s largest advanced economies in November. 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the yield curve a crystal ball for future growth? It is often claimed that the yield curve is a good leading indicator of economic growth, with inversions signalling impending recessions. But its track record suggests that it shouldn’t be relied upon... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Households mostly well placed for policy tightening Although their finances will come under some pressure as interest rates rise, households in most advanced economies should be able to cope. Debt burdens are low by past standards and, provided that... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for world trade quite good, despite Trump Fears that Donald Trump’s election sounded the death knell for globalisation have so far proven wide of the mark. Admittedly, there are still some threats to the outlook, and there is little chance of... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit: so far, so good? So far, Brexit has not had the huge adverse effects on the UK which many anticipated, and it has not caused any political upsets in the rest of Europe. It looks like there will be no major changes in... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four charts on the latest oil price move We continue to think that the latest leg-up in oil prices will be reversed. If not, there would be some upward pressure on global inflation, though little effect on demand, in the coming year or two. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The latest batch of manufacturing surveys suggests that advanced economies continued to do very well in October. As a result, the global manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since early 2011... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank lending still rising steadily Credit growth has continued to pick up gradually in the euro-zone and Japan, and more strongly in the UK. In the US, the slowdown in growth in lending to the private sector has eased recently. 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy to remain in good shape The world economy looks to have maintained momentum in Q3. We expect another strong quarter to round off the year, and then for global growth to slow only modestly throughout 2018. 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Catalonia impasse is not a new euro-zone crisis We think that financial markets are right to take a relaxed view of the constitutional crisis in Catalonia. The economic fallout for Spain itself should be small, and the risks to the euro-zone are... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
