Global Economics Update Will the global recovery de-synchronise in 2018? While the global economy is set to grow strongly again in 2018, the recovery is likely to de-synchronise somewhat as China slows before the US, and Europe remains strong. This could have important... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update 2018 should be another good year for consumers We estimate that household spending growth in the world’s major economies picked up from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2017. In 2018, it is likely to grow at a similarly decent pace to last year, as real... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI rose to a near seven-year high in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2017 in very good shape. We expect 2018 to be another year of strong... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2018 and beyond We expect 2018 to be another year of strong global growth, helped by a steady rise in employment and supportive policies, including a small fiscal stimulus in the US. In most advanced economies core... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should other central banks follow the Fed? There are reasons why the US Federal Reserve should be further along the path to policy normalisation than other major central banks. But there are also reasons why they should not lag too far behind. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Dec.) Preliminary business surveys for December, which were published today, indicate that advanced economies in aggregate ended 2017 growing at a heady pace of around 4% annualised. They also suggest that... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why are confident households not spending more? Consumer confidence has surged to its highest level since 2000 in advanced economies but consumption growth has not picked up. We think this is largely due to weak real wage growth. As tight labour... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bitcoin bubble is a curiosity, but not a big worry Unlike the bubbles in the tech sector in the late-1990s and in US residential property a few years later, a bursting of the bitcoin bubble should not have systemic, macroeconomic implications. The... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit growing at a healthy pace Monetary and credit conditions remain supportive and should continue to be so, even though the stock of assets purchased under global QE programmes should peak in the coming years. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) There has been no let-up in the fast pace of global growth in November. Manufacturing PMIs remained strong and/or increased almost everywhere and the global index is at its highest level since March... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Nov.) Preliminary surveys, published by Markit yesterday and today, point to a further pick-up in economic growth in the world’s largest advanced economies in November. 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the yield curve a crystal ball for future growth? It is often claimed that the yield curve is a good leading indicator of economic growth, with inversions signalling impending recessions. But its track record suggests that it shouldn’t be relied upon... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Households mostly well placed for policy tightening Although their finances will come under some pressure as interest rates rise, households in most advanced economies should be able to cope. Debt burdens are low by past standards and, provided that... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for world trade quite good, despite Trump Fears that Donald Trump’s election sounded the death knell for globalisation have so far proven wide of the mark. Admittedly, there are still some threats to the outlook, and there is little chance of... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit: so far, so good? So far, Brexit has not had the huge adverse effects on the UK which many anticipated, and it has not caused any political upsets in the rest of Europe. It looks like there will be no major changes in... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four charts on the latest oil price move We continue to think that the latest leg-up in oil prices will be reversed. If not, there would be some upward pressure on global inflation, though little effect on demand, in the coming year or two. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
