Global Economics Update Household spending growth likely to rebound in Q2 The slowdown in advanced economies in Q1 was partly a result of weak consumption growth. But we think that household spending will recover in Q2 and grow at a decent pace during the rest of 2018. 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world now less sensitive to oil prices? Oil price movements have big effects on individual economies, companies and assets. But we suspect that their impact on aggregate global demand is smaller now than it was a decade or two ago. This is... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks continue to relax lending standards In March, broad money growth slowed a bit in the euro-zone, UK and Japan. Indeed, in the euro-zone it dropped to its slowest rate since the ECB started its Asset Purchase Programme in early 2015... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM weakness to contribute to global slowdown The current troubles in Argentina and Turkey are not the start of a systemic emerging markets crisis, but we do think that EM growth will slow this year. With a US-led slowdown in advanced economies... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Business surveys for April, published today, suggest that global manufacturing conditions started Q2 in good shape and support our view that world GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Synchronised slowdown probably just temporary The fact that the slowdown in advanced economies has been so broad-based raises the question whether it is more than just a blip. However, strong business surveys and fundamentals suggest that... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Summit talks and the impact on Korea’s economy Today’s landmark summit between the two Koreas should help to remove a major tail risk for the region’s markets and economies. However, the impact on South Korea’s economy of an easing in tensions is... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with higher oil prices We think the recent rise in oil prices is likely to be reversed. But even if prices rose steadily to $100pb, there would be little fallout for global growth, despite an increase in headline inflation. 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Apr.) The business surveys for April, published by Markit today, support our view that the weakness of some of the recent data for advanced economies probably doesn’t mark the start of a sustained slowdown. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we fear a Labour government in the UK? Forget Brexit – the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy over the next couple of years could be the advent of a Labour government, and a particularly left-wing one at that. On the plus side, this... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting China’s surplus into perspective China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US and concerns about unfair trade practices are likely to keep US-China trade tensions boiling for a long time. But China’s overall current account surplus is... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
