Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary shift signals bank FX concerns In the past few months, the Turkish central bank has added to its policy toolkit by allowing banks to hold foreign currencies and gold in place of lira as required reserves for their lira liabilities... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts rates but further easing likely to be limited The National Bank of Hungary’s surprise decision to cut interest rates today suggests that further easing could be on the way. But unless and until an IMF/EU deal is agreed, anything more than a... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian slowdown starting to spread beyond industry July’s activity data, released earlier today, suggest that the Russian economy slowed further at the start of Q3 and may now be growing at around 3% y/y – down from rates of close to 5% in the first... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next big move for the ruble will be down The ruble has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, falling by 10% against its dollar/euro basket in May, before clawing back around 5% of its losses over the past few weeks. If nothing else, this... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update No need to worry about food inflation just yet The pick-up in food inflation in Emerging Europe is likely to raise fears that the recent spike in global agricultural prices is starting to hit the region. There is a fair amount of uncertainty, but... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal austerity bites in Hungary and the Czech Republic Today’s Q2 GDP data paint a picture of weakening growth, with Hungary joining the Czech Republic in recession. For now, the drop in output in both countries seems to have been driven as much by... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian political tensions put FX reserve buffers at risk The National Bank of Romania (NBR) appears to have stepped up intervention in the FX market to defend the leu following the recent bout of political turmoil. For now, FX reserve coverage looks... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth slows in the Baltic States Q2’s GDP data provide the first sign that the impressive bounce in growth in the Baltic States is coming to an end. Growth decelerated in Latvia and slowed to a crawl in Lithuania and Estonia. A... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bank turns hawkish despite slowdown in growth The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, though modest, is likely to be a sign of things to come. Accordingly, speculation that the Central Bank may soon hike interest rates seems premature. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can the bond rally last? Emerging European bonds have rallied over the past couple of months. In the case of Hungary and Turkey we are doubtful that it can be sustained, but in the Czech Republic and Poland, it may have... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank could cut rates once more this year Although the Czech National Bank (CNB) left interest rates on hold today, we think the weakness of the economy could prompt one further 25bp rate cut before the end of this year. 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry still stagnating The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that while industrial output in Emerging Europe has not collapsed to the same extent as in the euro-zone, neither is it growing. The authorities will become... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rally in Hungarian markets has weak foundations Signs that Hungary’s government is softening its stance on the precise form of financing assistance it is negotiating with the IMF is clearly good news. But there are still plenty of stumbling blocks... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian President’s referendum survival adds to uncertainty Paradoxically, the apparent survival of Romania’s President in Sunday’s referendum could pave the way for a protracted period of political instability. This is likely to take its toll on the financial... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
