Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank leaves rates on hold The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark refinancing rate on hold at 8.00% today, citing robust economic performance and that inflation is within the target range. Looking ahead, we think... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: financing risks cloud the outlook With the temporary boost to consumer spending from the Euro 2012 Football Championship now over, Ukraine has to get back to reality. Significant external financing needs continue to cast a long shadow... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s new fiscal rule is no panacea The draft budget for 2013, 2014 and 2015 submitted last Friday offers some hope to Russia’s ailing public finances by aiming to reduce the budget’s vulnerability to swings in oil prices. Nevertheless... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s political turmoil casts doubts on IMF/EU deal The Romanian parliament’s vote to impeach the President leaves the country clouded by uncertainty and casts doubts on the future of the country’s IMF/EU programme. This is likely to keep the leu and... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s talks with IMF/EU won’t be plain sailing The passage of Hungary’s new Central Bank Act has lifted the last obstacle to the start of negotiations with the IMF and European Union. But this is merely the beginning. Numerous issues will need to... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish bank has little room for manoeuvre A combination of slowing inflation and disappointing Q1 GDP data has led to speculation that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) might start to loosen monetary policy. We are sceptical. With the current... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey skirting hard landing but vulnerabilities persist Turkish Q1 GDP data showed that the economy has so far avoided the hard landing that we had feared. What’s more, leading indicators point towards a modest improvement in Q2. Nonetheless, with the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturers in Central Europe feeling the squeeze June’s PMI data provide further evidence that manufacturers in the highly open economies of Central Europe are being hit hard by the crisis in the euro-zone, while those in Russia and Turkey are... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech stimulus starts, what next? Czech policymakers have finally responded to the deteriorating growth outlook by cutting interest rates to a record low today. But with little scope for more conventional policy stimulus, we think... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weaker Polish data could bring rate cuts back onto agenda Signs that the Polish economy is slowing should quell calls for rate hikes over the coming months. But growing troubles in the euro-zone mean that interest rate cuts are likely to come back on to the... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC eases slightly, but rates to remain high The Turkish MPC shifted slightly towards easing mode at today’s meeting. Nonetheless, with the current account deficit still large and a sharp rise in short-term external debt, we expect monetary... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF revisited With attention fixed on every twist and turn in Hungary’s talks with the IMF, it’s easy to forget why the government first raised the prospect of assistance nine months ago. In short, while the fiscal... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth probably slowed in Q2 Relative to the rest of the region the Russian economy remains in a decent shape, but the first signs of a slowdown are starting to appear. Our estimates suggest that growth eased to around 4.0-4.5% y... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's crisis package underlines dependency on oil revenues The $40bn crisis package that press reports suggest is being prepared by the Russian government should allay fears of a repeat of 2008-09, when the Kremlin was accused of being behind the curve in the... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The PMI puzzle Manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe have weakened significantly over the past couple of months as the economic outlook has darkened. The one crumb of comfort, however, is that they have not fallen as... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
