Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish GDP growth probably slowed to 3% in Q2 The raft of recently released data from Poland suggests that GDP growth may have slowed to around 3.0% y/y in Q2, down from 3.5% y/y in Q1. And we suspect that growth in the second half of the year... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q2 slowdown a sign of things to come Today’s Q2 economic report by the Russian Ministry of Economy confirmed an earlier forecast that GDP grew by 3.9% y/y in the second quarter, down from 4.9% y/y in Q1. We fear the slowdown may be a... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Bank maintains easing stance but risks still high While keeping interest rates on hold today, Turkey’s central bank is maintaining its policy of gradually easing monetary conditions. But given the combination of a still-large current account deficit... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia & WTO: don’t expect a miracle After almost 20 years of negotiations, Russia’s membership in the WTO at last seems imminent. But as the effects of this will be spread over several years, we do not expect a significant impact on the... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More bad news for the Russian economy June’s raft of activity data confirmed that strong growth in the first quarter of the year is likely to be the high watermark for the Russian economy in 2012. We think growth slowed to around 4.0% in... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Core inflation still subdued in Emerging Europe Although inflation rose across Emerging Europe last month, our estimates suggest that core price pressures remain weak. As a result, above-target headline inflation should present little barrier to... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank leaves rates on hold The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark refinancing rate on hold at 8.00% today, citing robust economic performance and that inflation is within the target range. Looking ahead, we think... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: financing risks cloud the outlook With the temporary boost to consumer spending from the Euro 2012 Football Championship now over, Ukraine has to get back to reality. Significant external financing needs continue to cast a long shadow... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s new fiscal rule is no panacea The draft budget for 2013, 2014 and 2015 submitted last Friday offers some hope to Russia’s ailing public finances by aiming to reduce the budget’s vulnerability to swings in oil prices. Nevertheless... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s political turmoil casts doubts on IMF/EU deal The Romanian parliament’s vote to impeach the President leaves the country clouded by uncertainty and casts doubts on the future of the country’s IMF/EU programme. This is likely to keep the leu and... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s talks with IMF/EU won’t be plain sailing The passage of Hungary’s new Central Bank Act has lifted the last obstacle to the start of negotiations with the IMF and European Union. But this is merely the beginning. Numerous issues will need to... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish bank has little room for manoeuvre A combination of slowing inflation and disappointing Q1 GDP data has led to speculation that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) might start to loosen monetary policy. We are sceptical. With the current... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey skirting hard landing but vulnerabilities persist Turkish Q1 GDP data showed that the economy has so far avoided the hard landing that we had feared. What’s more, leading indicators point towards a modest improvement in Q2. Nonetheless, with the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturers in Central Europe feeling the squeeze June’s PMI data provide further evidence that manufacturers in the highly open economies of Central Europe are being hit hard by the crisis in the euro-zone, while those in Russia and Turkey are... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
