Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation falling in Eastern Europe Headline inflation fell pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe in May on the back of easing food and energy inflation. Moreover, with the possible exception of Turkey, underlying price pressures... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Latvia a model for the euro-zone’s periphery? It is probably too soon to judge whether or not Latvia’s internal devaluation has been a success. But the early signs do not suggest that it provides a model for the euro-zone’s crisis-hit periphery... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data show fragility of domestic demand Final Q1 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe show that the slowdown across the region was driven by weaker domestic demand, with the exception of Slovakia. Meanwhile, exports proved... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Russia? Compared to 2008-09, Russia is now less vulnerable to financial contagion as a result of a fresh shock to the global economy (most notably from the euro-zone). But at the same time, Russia’s economy... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis taking a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s industry May’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is hitting the economies of Emerging Europe. Industry already appears to be in recession in much of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland resilient to euro-crisis but not immune First quarter GDP confirmed what we’ve known for a while: Poland is more resilient than her peers to the crisis in the euro-zone, but equally she is not immune. And with the euro-crisis deepening, a... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What can policymakers do to limit financial contagion? There are several ways that, in theory, policymakers in Emerging Europe could limit any financial contagion arising from a disorderly break-up of the euro. But in practice, we suspect that building... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update External financing risks resurface for Hungary and Turkey Policymakers in both Hungary and Turkey kept rates on hold today, but clearly talk of looser policy to support growth is premature. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Euro 2012 The Euro 2012 Football Championships, which are due to start next month in Ukraine and Poland, are an exception to the general rule that major sporting tournaments do not tend to have a significant... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak zloty a cause for concern, but shouldn’t justify rate hikes The recent sell-off in the zloty will make it harder for the Polish government to keep public debt from breaching constitutionally mandated ceilings. In the extreme, policymakers face the risk of... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint slump to trigger renewed talk of IMF deal The latest slump in the Hungarian forint has taken the currency to below 300/€ – the rate that, on past form at least, has triggered a response from the authorities. This time around, the response... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: April data still strong, but a slowdown imminent The raft of activity data released today showed that the Russian economy made a decent start to Q2, with consumers remaining the main engine of growth. Meanwhile, the new cabinet, also announced today... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe’s currencies caught in the crossfire The growing risk of Greece leaving the euro-zone has taken a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s currencies. Most are now back at their lows seen in the autumn of last year. Looking ahead, there is... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers have little room for manoeuvre This week’s dismal first quarter GDP data will sharpen the debate over whether policymakers in Emerging Europe should pursue austerity or focus on growth. But in reality, while there is scope for one... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek exit risks revisited With a few notable exceptions, Emerging Europe’s direct exposure to Greece is small. But the contagion from a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone would have disastrous consequences for the region... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data just the tip of the iceberg The raft of Q1 GDP data released today show that output in large parts of Emerging Europe was contracting even before the most recent escalation of the euro-crisis. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
