Emerging Europe Economics Update Austerity without growth won’t work for Slovenia Slovenia’s debt problems are not as severe as those of other Southern European economies, but its public debt is nonetheless on an unsustainable footing. Moreover, given the backdrop of private sector... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rebalancing more difficult from now on Today’s balance of payments data from Turkey show that the current account deficit continued to narrow in March. It now looks like the economy is around half way through the rebalancing needed to... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data should impress – but can it last? The raft of Q1 GDP data due to be released over the coming weeks will confirm that, having been on the brink of a crisis towards the end of last year, most economies in Emerging Europe have since... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is this Poland’s “ECB moment”? The post-MPC press conference did not provide much clarity on whether this morning’s surprise hike in Polish interest rates was a one-off event or the start of a new tightening cycle. On balance, we... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Putin 2.0 for real? In his first speech since returning to the Russian presidency, Vladimir Putin underlined the need to shift towards a more liberal economic policy. We have been here before, of course, and we remain... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Balance tips in favour of Polish rates staying on hold It remains a close call, but we think that the weaker run of data over the past couple of weeks has tipped the balance in favour of Polish interest rates being kept on hold at next week’s MPC meeting... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: back into recession After a boom and bust in domestic demand over the last decade, Bulgaria’s economy appears to be shifting towards export-led growth and away from over-reliance on domestic consumption. But the good... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates on hold until politics stabilises The National Bank of Romania’s (NBR’s) decision to keep interest rates on hold today suggests that the easing cycle is on hold until the political situation (and the leu) stabilises. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing hit by fresh slump in the euro-zone April’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial output in most of Emerging Europe contracted last month – mirroring the recent deterioration in the survey data from Germany. More worryingly, the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s government falls victim to austerity backlash The fall of Romania’s cabinet earlier today adds to the growing list of European governments to be toppled by a backlash against austerity, reinforcing our below-consensus forecast for growth this... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: growth slowed sharply in Q1 Recent data suggest that the Ukrainian economy slowed sharply at the beginning of the year. With the outlook for the euro-zone still bleak and the Russian economy on course to slow too, we think... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary edges closer to an IMF/EU deal Signs that the European Commission (EC) is willing to be more lenient in its discussions with Hungary over a new IMF/EU financing programme suggest that an agreement could be reached more quickly than... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update European shale gas adds to risks to Russia’s growth model European shale gas reserves will take many years to develop, but in time the impact on Russia’s energy exports could be substantial. We estimate that Russia’s revenues from gas exports to Europe may... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets right to shrug off Czech political worries The financial markets have shrugged off signs that the Czech Republic may be heading towards fresh elections that could ultimately derail fiscal consolidation plans. This makes sense. For a start, the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian government still too sanguine on IMF deal Earlier today we attended a meeting with Hungarian Minister of Economy, Zoltan Csefalvay. We left with the impression that, while the government talks a good game on the need for medium-term economic... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis still the big risk for region’s banks Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a mixed picture: in some countries (notably Hungary and the Baltic States) credit continues to shrink, in others (Turkey) a boom in lending over the past year or so... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
