Emerging Europe Economics Update What would US sanctions on Russian sovereign debt mean? Speculation that US sanctions could be expanded to include sovereign debt have caused a stir in the Russian bond market. It is still far from certain that this will happen. But were it to materialise... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC press conference masks hawkish shift The surprisingly dovish tone taken by Governor Glapinski in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting belies the hawkish shift in sentiment across the Council as a whole. In spite of the... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rapid Czech wage growth to prompt more rate hikes The continued strong run of Czech wage data has been driven by a tightening of labour market conditions. With labour shortages continuing to mount, wage growth is set to remain rapid over the coming... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil output cuts explain only part of Russia’s slowdown Russia’s participation in the OPEC deal to cut oil output, which was rolled over last night, has so far had only a modest impact on the economy and can account for just 10% of the slowdown in annual... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: surveys point to a marked rise in core inflation Core inflation has been slower to rise in Poland than in the rest of Central Europe this year, but survey-based measures of price expectations suggest that it is set to pick up markedly over the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s National Bank missing the bigger picture The Hungarian MPC left both its three-month and overnight deposit rates on hold today but the Council announced unconventional measures to ease policy, including interest rate swaps and a mortgage... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank struggles to curtail lira’s slide The drop in the Turkish lira over the past month has already prompted the central bank (CBRT) to nudge up the average cost of the funding it provides to commercial banks and to begin auctioning non... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation on the turn EM inflation dropped to an eight-year low in the middle of this year, but it has now started to rise. The recent increase in oil prices will have pushed it higher this month. And a combination of... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy isn’t running into capacity constraints yet We don’t find compelling evidence to support the argument that the slowdown in Russia’s economy in Q3 was the result of mounting capacity constraints. In contrast, our view is that there is still a... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s judicial reforms, the EU and sanctions: a primer The European Parliament moved one step closer to sanctioning Poland earlier this week in response to the government’s controversial proposals to reform the judiciary. In this Update, we explain how... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the region’s Q3 GDP data look? The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe are likely to show that growth accelerated in most of the region. While the pace of expansion probably softened a touch in... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC taking a hawkish turn The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press release seems to confirm that the Council is becoming more hawkish. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Tightening cycle has much further to run The Romanian MPC’s decision to raise its overnight deposit interest rate represents a move to tighten monetary policy further. And the hawkish post-meeting press statement supports our view that... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s external vulnerabilities building Romania’s widening current account deficit is not quite as alarming as the headline figure would suggest, but rapid import growth has still increased the country’s dependence on capital inflows. With... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting – at which it resumed its tightening cycle via a 25bp hike to the policy rate – was more dovish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we think that... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A fresh look at Central Europe’s populist shift The victory of the ANO party in the recent Czech election has put the spotlight back onto the rise of populism in Central Europe. In this Update, we take a closer look at the political and economic... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
