Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish consumer spending to remain strong … for now We think that the near-term outlook for consumer spending in Poland is bright. A further acceleration in wage growth – together with loose fiscal policy and record-high consumer confidence – should... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s unconventional easing fails to convince markets Long-term bond yields in Hungary have risen further this year than those of the country’s peers, despite the central bank’s efforts to bring them down. It seems that markets are coming around to our... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish surveys suggest rise in core inflation is on its way Two widely-watched survey-based measures of price expectations in Poland hit seven-year highs in January, suggesting that core inflation is set to pick up markedly over the course of 2018. This... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early signs that Russia’s recovery is getting back on track Russia’s economy slowed over the second half of 2017, but the latest data for January suggest that conditions have improved at the start of this year. We expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018 The Russian central bank’s 25bp cut in its policy interest rate (to 7.50%) today was smaller than we had anticipated, but the decision was accompanied by a very dovish statement that paves the way for... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC slightly less dovish, tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but recent comments from Governor Glapinski suggest that he is becoming increasingly concerned about the strength of the labour market. We think... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: fiscal plans point to diverging growth prospects The widening of budget deficits in Hungary and Romania means that the loose fiscal policy pursued in recent years is set to come to an end in 2018. Growth is likely to slow (sharply in the case of... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hikes, but likely to pause next month The statement accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was hiked by 25bp – suggests that the Council will hold fire at its next meeting on 29th March. Even so, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to drift higher EM inflation remained steady in the final few months of last year, but we think it will drift up over the course of 2018. Higher oil prices will feed through into higher EM fuel inflation over the... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Car manufacturing weighing on Central European exports The Central European economies have enjoyed a period of strong economic growth, but exports have been a relative (and perhaps surprising) weak spot. This appears to reflect a general weakening of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE currencies: it’s the economy, stupid! The news flow in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the past few weeks has been dominated by political troubles, but currencies have performed surprisingly well. One reason for this is likely to be... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals policy to stay tight for longer The Turkish MPC’s decision to keep all of its key interest rates unchanged today was accompanied by a statement that indicates the Committee is more determined to bring inflation back under control... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary’s MPC keep the bond market rally going? Hungary’s central bank has started two new policies this week aimed at bringing down bond yields, including the first QE programme in an emerging market. But there are reasons to think that the impact... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press conference highlighted that a hawkish faction exists on the Council. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be larger than most expect The Romanian MPC’s hawkish post-meeting press statement, which followed the decision to hike the policy interest rate earlier today, supports our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
