Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation likely to remain near multi-year lows The big fall in EM inflation is now behind us but it is likely to remain relatively subdued over the coming months. As a result, despite the recent shift in focus towards monetary tightening in... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s strong recovery won’t last Turkey’s economy enjoyed a strong first half of the year, but growth is close to peaking and we think that it will slow in 2018-19, and by more than most expect. What’s more, given the vulnerabilities... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC starts gradual tightening cycle The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting, at which it hiked interest rates for the first time in nine years, was relatively dovish and adds to the impression that this will be a gradual... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Poland’s controversial judicial reforms The Polish government’s controversial proposals to reform the judiciary have been met by a backlash both domestically and from the EU. In this Watch, we take a closer look at how the saga could play... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Big gains for Turkish equities behind us The surge in Turkish equities earlier this year appears to have been aided by improvements in the real economy, but the more recent rise has been due to global risk appetite. There is scope for... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: monetary easing cycle to resume in coming months The Russian central bank’s decision to pause its easing cycle was motivated by last month’s higher-than-expected inflation outturn. But we expect inflation to fall back to the central bank’s target... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC stands pat, but rate cuts likely later this year The tone of the Turkish MPC statement published at today’s meeting remained relatively hawkish, but we think that falling inflation is likely to prompt the Council to start loosening monetary policy... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM Inflation drops to eight-year low as fuel prices slow EM inflation fell in June to its lowest rate since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. With the decline in fuel inflation close to bottoming out, we think EM inflation will trough in the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s widening budget deficit: red flag or red herring? The recent loosening of fiscal policy in Turkey seems, in part, to be a justified response to the economic slump following last year’s coup attempt. But any sign that it represents the start of a more... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s strong survey data overstating Q2 GDP growth The sharp improvement in business and consumer confidence in Hungary – where various survey measures hit record-highs in Q2 – doesn’t appear to reflect a pick-up in actual GDP growth. We think it’s... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish, but divisions growing The press statement that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained extremely dovish, but it does seem that there are growing divisions within the Council. With wage growth and core inflation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals rate hike in August The hawkish tone of today’s post-meeting statement and press conference supports our non-consensus view that the first interest rate hike in the Czech Republic will come at August’s MPC meeting... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices will keep inflation subdued for longer The recent fall in oil prices will keep EM inflation close to its current multi-year low for longer, but it won’t trigger a collapse in inflation. 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
