Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the ECB affect CEE? The ECB’s ‘tapering’ of its asset purchases later this year and probable rate hikes in 2019 are unlikely to have much economic or financial market impact in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But, at... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to watch for after the Erdogan-AKP victory Victories for President Erdogan and his AKP-led alliance in Turkey’s elections have been welcomed by financial markets, but history suggests that this rally will be short-lived, particularly if Mr... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing era of ultra-loose policy to an end The post-meeting communications following today’s Hungarian MPC meeting offered some strong hints that the recent era of ultra-loose monetary policy is in its final days. We think that unconventional... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Turkey forecasts We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle Govenor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments at today’s post-meeting press conference are likely to reinforce views in the markets that the central bank’s easing cycle is at an end. For our part, we think... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia’s demographic squeeze (finally) being tackled? The announcement that Russia’s Cabinet plans to raise the retirement age is a step in the right direction. While there are question marks about whether it will be implemented in full, it could stop... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC needs to grab the bull by the horns Romania’s economy is overheating and, unless monetary policy is tightened markedly in the months ahead, a nastier adjustment and more abrupt slowdown in GDP growth lies in wait.Romania’s economy is... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment growth will remain robust After a strong Q1, Polish fixed investment growth will stay robust over the duration of 2018. However, this won’t be enough to prevent headline GDP growth from slowing. 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank hikes, elections key to rate outlook The Turkish central bank’s decision to hike its one-week repo rate by 125bp, to 17.75%, is a tentative sign that it is shifting its focus away from simply shoring up the lira and towards tackling high... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions impact The imposition of more stringent US financial sanctions in April seems to have resulted in a long-lasting premium in Russia’s currency and bond market. But there has been little convincing evidence of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: Net trade increasingly dragging on growth GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central Europe showed that, while domestic demand remained strong in Q1, net trade dragged on growth across the region. With capacity constraints starting to bite... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? Last week’s emergency rate hike by Turkey’s central bank has caused a rebound in the lira and past experience suggests that the rally may have a bit further to run over the coming weeks. But there are... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How could Italy’s problems affect Emerging Europe? Recent developments in Italy do not pose an immediate threat to economies in Emerging Europe but a significant escalation in the crisis would cause problems for countries in the region, particularly... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: more to monetary policy shift than meets the eye The decision by Turkey’s central bank to begin using the one-week repo rate as its key policy tool looks less like an effort to simplify its monetary policy framework (as has been suggested by some)... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tighter financial conditions point to sharp slowdown The plunge in the Turkish lira and dislocation in local markets in recent weeks has resulted in a severe tightening of broader financial conditions. Past experience suggests that a tightening on the... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira collapse to trigger rate hikes The plunge in the Turkish lira over the past few days has been steeper than that which triggered abrupt monetary tightening in 2014 and 2017. We expect the MPC to hold an interim meeting over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
