Emerging Europe Economics Update EM Inflation drops to eight-year low as fuel prices slow EM inflation fell in June to its lowest rate since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. With the decline in fuel inflation close to bottoming out, we think EM inflation will trough in the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s widening budget deficit: red flag or red herring? The recent loosening of fiscal policy in Turkey seems, in part, to be a justified response to the economic slump following last year’s coup attempt. But any sign that it represents the start of a more... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s strong survey data overstating Q2 GDP growth The sharp improvement in business and consumer confidence in Hungary – where various survey measures hit record-highs in Q2 – doesn’t appear to reflect a pick-up in actual GDP growth. We think it’s... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish, but divisions growing The press statement that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained extremely dovish, but it does seem that there are growing divisions within the Council. With wage growth and core inflation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals rate hike in August The hawkish tone of today’s post-meeting statement and press conference supports our non-consensus view that the first interest rate hike in the Czech Republic will come at August’s MPC meeting... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices will keep inflation subdued for longer The recent fall in oil prices will keep EM inflation close to its current multi-year low for longer, but it won’t trigger a collapse in inflation. 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC signals loose policy to stay The Hungarian MPC’s extremely dovish post-meeting press statement provided further evidence that policymakers are as yet untroubled by growing signs of capacity constraints. Monetary policy is set to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: CBR governor strikes cautious note Relatively hawkish comments from the Russian central bank today appear to be aimed at dampening hopes that the pace of monetary easing might be stepped up. But while the policy rate is likely to be... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC ends tightening cycle but stays hawkish The Turkish central bank ended the recent tightening cycle today, but high inflation, strong GDP growth (this year at least), and hawkish comments from the MPC, mean that a shift towards interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tighter US sanctions would have limited impact Legislation passed by the US Senate to tighten the sanctions regime on Russia provides further reason to think that medium-term growth in Russia will be extremely weak. But the near-term economic... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to rise further than most expect by end-2018 The press conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland highlighted that some members of the Council are becoming more hawkish. While this supports our view that the policy interest rate will... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic recovery levelling off Turkish GDP figures due next week are likely to show that the recovery levelled off in the first quarter at around 3.5% y/y. But there are signs of a healthy rebalancing of the drivers of growth. 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sentiment starts to shift on Poland’s MPC The combination of strong growth and rising core inflation has led some members of Poland’s MPC to strike a more hawkish tone in recent months. However, while this is consistent with our view that... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
