Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Why hasn’t rapid wage growth pushed up inflation? Rapid wage growth in Central Europe has yet to feed into a meaningful pick-up in inflation. Part of the softness of Central European inflation reflects weak price pressures in the euro-zone. But it... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: coalescing risks to trigger emergency rate hike Market sentiment towards Turkey is quickly evaporating as fears mount over the build-up of external vulnerabilities, high and rising inflation, and growing concerns that the central bank’s... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Turkish lira’s latest fall mean for inflation? The Turkish lira’s decline in recent weeks will keep headline inflation elevated, prompting the central bank to shrug off political pressure and hike interest rates in the coming months. The big risk... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The drivers of Turkey’s widening current account deficit The deterioration in Turkey’s current account position since mid-2017 has been driven by a surge in gold imports, a rising energy import bill and strong domestic demand feeding through into imports of... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q1 GDP figures The batch of preliminary Q1 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due next week should confirm that, while regional growth peaked last year, it remained relatively strong at the start of 2018. The pace of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the fall in the lira mean for Turkey’s FX debts? The latest fall in the Turkish lira doesn’t appear to have resulted in widespread balance sheet strains, but there are significant vulnerabilities in the corporate and banking sectors. This adds to... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The EU’s next budget and what it means for CEE The EU’s draft budget for 2021-27 released today only provided headline details but, as a rough estimate, we think that annual structural fund inflows for each of the Central and Eastern European (CEE... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals rate cuts still on the cards, despite ruble sell-off The sell-off in the ruble caused the Russian central bank (CBR) to pause its easing cycle today, but the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that rates are likely to be lowered... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hike brings only temporary relief for the lira The move by the Turkish MPC to hike its late liquidity rate by 75bp today only brought temporary relief for the lira and suggests that markets are unconvinced about policymakers’ willingness to shore... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: pre-election fiscal boost to fade over 2018 Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has gained a reputation for fiscal prudence in the past few years, but the latest data suggest that stimulus in the run-up to April’s parliamentary election has caused... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble and lira sway next week’s rate decisions? The latest moves in the Russian and Turkish currencies mean interest rate decisions due in both countries next week are on a knife edge. On balance, we think the Turkish central bank will raise its... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC increasingly dovish, rate hikes unlikely this year Governor Glapinski’s extremely dovish post-meeting press conference, coupled with the recent weak inflation data, has prompted us to take out the interest rate hikes from our forecast for this year... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira slump likely to trigger rate hikes Mounting concerns about Turkey’s current account deficit as well as debt problems in the corporate sector are likely to keep the lira under pressure over the coming weeks. As a result, we now expect... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble’s fall doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The sharp fall in the Russian ruble today has raised the risk that the central bank pauses its easing cycle when it meets later this month. The situation is in a state of flux and the outlook for... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s sanction sell-off and the economic impact The US sanctions imposed on Russia last Friday have caused turmoil in Russia’s markets today and financial conditions have tightened as a result. But at this stage it doesn’t look like there will be a... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Fidesz’s third term starts as economic cycle turns Fidesz-KDNP’s sweeping victory in Sunday’s parliamentary election in Hungary has been welcomed by local financial markets, but the late stage of the economic cycle means the government’s next term is... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
