Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions threat The fall in Russia’s external liabilities over the past few years has reduced the extent to which its economy might be adversely affected by the imposition of additional financial sanctions. By the... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0: what to look out for Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in yesterday’s presidential election has barely caused a ripple in local markets. The focus will now turn to the appointment of a new cabinet, which may provide... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Warning signs start to flash in Turkey’s economy The sheer pace of growth in Turkey looks increasingly like a cause for concern and there is mounting evidence that the economy is now overheating. Previous such episodes of overheating have been... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about Polish fiscal policy? Fiscal policy in Poland is set to be loosened further this year, which is one reason why economic growth is likely to remain strong. There aren’t any imminent concerns about the health of the public... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: early signs that strong demand is leaking into imports Q4 GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) confirmed that last year’s pick-up in regional growth was driven by an improvement in consumer spending and investment. However... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC still dovish, but rate hikes not too far away Governor Glapinski struck a dovish tone in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting. However, we think that inflation will rise faster than the central bank anticipates over the coming... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s trade deficit signals a revival of past vulnerabilities The sharp widening of Turkey’s trade deficit in the last few months is a reflection of very strong domestic demand, which has sucked in imports. But the deficit is now approaching levels that, in the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0 unlikely to step up to the economic challenge President Putin’s State of the Nation address provided the first signs of his economic goals for his next term. On the face of it, it looks like Putin promised looser fiscal policy, but we think there... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish consumer spending to remain strong … for now We think that the near-term outlook for consumer spending in Poland is bright. A further acceleration in wage growth – together with loose fiscal policy and record-high consumer confidence – should... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s unconventional easing fails to convince markets Long-term bond yields in Hungary have risen further this year than those of the country’s peers, despite the central bank’s efforts to bring them down. It seems that markets are coming around to our... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish surveys suggest rise in core inflation is on its way Two widely-watched survey-based measures of price expectations in Poland hit seven-year highs in January, suggesting that core inflation is set to pick up markedly over the course of 2018. This... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early signs that Russia’s recovery is getting back on track Russia’s economy slowed over the second half of 2017, but the latest data for January suggest that conditions have improved at the start of this year. We expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018 The Russian central bank’s 25bp cut in its policy interest rate (to 7.50%) today was smaller than we had anticipated, but the decision was accompanied by a very dovish statement that paves the way for... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC slightly less dovish, tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but recent comments from Governor Glapinski suggest that he is becoming increasingly concerned about the strength of the labour market. We think... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
