Emerging Europe Economics Update EC triggers Article 7 against Poland: what next? The decision by the European Commission to trigger an Article 7 procedure against Poland is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy in the short-term. Poland’s structural fund inflows can’t be... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC still dovish, but tide may be slowly turning The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary continued to strike an extremely dovish tone but, reading between the lines, it does seem that the rhetoric is gradually starting to shift... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to rise in 2018 EM inflation was steady between October and November, but the big picture is that it is up from the multi-year trough reached in the summer and will continue to rise over the course of 2018. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates to be lowered further than markets expect The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bp today caught the market (and ourselves) by surprise but the scale of the cut, as well as the tone of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rate hike fails to convince markets The Turkish central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller hike in its late liquidity rate today than markets had anticipated seems to reflect political pressure not to tighten policy substantially. The... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities are mounting (again) The sheer pace of annual GDP growth in Turkey in Q3 was flattered by base effects, but a closer look at the data shows worrying signs that strong growth has contributed to the recent jump in inflation... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE not yet overheating, but risks are building The sheer pace of GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe in Q3 has raised a few eyebrows. For now, there are few signs that economies in the region are overheating. But we are becoming... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would US sanctions on Russian sovereign debt mean? Speculation that US sanctions could be expanded to include sovereign debt have caused a stir in the Russian bond market. It is still far from certain that this will happen. But were it to materialise... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC press conference masks hawkish shift The surprisingly dovish tone taken by Governor Glapinski in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting belies the hawkish shift in sentiment across the Council as a whole. In spite of the... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rapid Czech wage growth to prompt more rate hikes The continued strong run of Czech wage data has been driven by a tightening of labour market conditions. With labour shortages continuing to mount, wage growth is set to remain rapid over the coming... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil output cuts explain only part of Russia’s slowdown Russia’s participation in the OPEC deal to cut oil output, which was rolled over last night, has so far had only a modest impact on the economy and can account for just 10% of the slowdown in annual... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: surveys point to a marked rise in core inflation Core inflation has been slower to rise in Poland than in the rest of Central Europe this year, but survey-based measures of price expectations suggest that it is set to pick up markedly over the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s National Bank missing the bigger picture The Hungarian MPC left both its three-month and overnight deposit rates on hold today but the Council announced unconventional measures to ease policy, including interest rate swaps and a mortgage... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank struggles to curtail lira’s slide The drop in the Turkish lira over the past month has already prompted the central bank (CBRT) to nudge up the average cost of the funding it provides to commercial banks and to begin auctioning non... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation on the turn EM inflation dropped to an eight-year low in the middle of this year, but it has now started to rise. The recent increase in oil prices will have pushed it higher this month. And a combination of... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy isn’t running into capacity constraints yet We don’t find compelling evidence to support the argument that the slowdown in Russia’s economy in Q3 was the result of mounting capacity constraints. In contrast, our view is that there is still a... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
