Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s judicial reforms, the EU and sanctions: a primer The European Parliament moved one step closer to sanctioning Poland earlier this week in response to the government’s controversial proposals to reform the judiciary. In this Update, we explain how... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the region’s Q3 GDP data look? The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe are likely to show that growth accelerated in most of the region. While the pace of expansion probably softened a touch in... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC taking a hawkish turn The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press release seems to confirm that the Council is becoming more hawkish. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Tightening cycle has much further to run The Romanian MPC’s decision to raise its overnight deposit interest rate represents a move to tighten monetary policy further. And the hawkish post-meeting press statement supports our view that... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s external vulnerabilities building Romania’s widening current account deficit is not quite as alarming as the headline figure would suggest, but rapid import growth has still increased the country’s dependence on capital inflows. With... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting – at which it resumed its tightening cycle via a 25bp hike to the policy rate – was more dovish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we think that... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A fresh look at Central Europe’s populist shift The victory of the ANO party in the recent Czech election has put the spotlight back onto the rise of populism in Central Europe. In this Update, we take a closer look at the political and economic... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further downside for the Turkish lira The Turkish lira has strengthened a little today, but it has been the worst-performing major EM currency this month. We have revisited our forecasts and we now expect further falls in the currency... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation nudges down again Aggregate EM inflation ticked down between August and September on the back of a fall in food inflation in East Asia. This appears to have been due to a shift in the timing of holidays in the region... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hints at larger easing cycle The Russian central bank statement, which accompanied today’s decision to cut the policy rate by 25bp, suggests that policymakers have become increasingly confident that inflation will remain low and... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up hawkish rhetoric The hawkish tone of today’s Turkish MPC statement showed an overdue concern with high inflation (and expectations) and suggests that cuts in interest rates are off the agenda. That said, with... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech coalition negotiations likely to be a long drag Events over the past 24 hours have confirmed our view that, while the centre-right ANO party would prevail in the country’s elections, the challenging part will be forming a coalition government... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The surprising jump in Turkish inflation in the past few months appears to be mainly due to a combination of a rise in dairy and egg inflation, the lingering impact of previous falls in the lira as... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external vulnerabilities back under the microscope Turkey’s recent diplomatic spat with the US – and the subsequent sell-off in financial markets – has refocussed attention on the economy’s external vulnerabilities. We have two areas of concern: the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC stays dovish, but rate hikes on the cards in 2018 Poland’s MPC left interest rates unchanged today and the press statement and conference that followed struck a dovish tone. While headline inflation is likely to edge down in the final months of this... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
