Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: fiscal plans point to diverging growth prospects The widening of budget deficits in Hungary and Romania means that the loose fiscal policy pursued in recent years is set to come to an end in 2018. Growth is likely to slow (sharply in the case of... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hikes, but likely to pause next month The statement accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was hiked by 25bp – suggests that the Council will hold fire at its next meeting on 29th March. Even so, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to drift higher EM inflation remained steady in the final few months of last year, but we think it will drift up over the course of 2018. Higher oil prices will feed through into higher EM fuel inflation over the... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Car manufacturing weighing on Central European exports The Central European economies have enjoyed a period of strong economic growth, but exports have been a relative (and perhaps surprising) weak spot. This appears to reflect a general weakening of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE currencies: it’s the economy, stupid! The news flow in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the past few weeks has been dominated by political troubles, but currencies have performed surprisingly well. One reason for this is likely to be... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals policy to stay tight for longer The Turkish MPC’s decision to keep all of its key interest rates unchanged today was accompanied by a statement that indicates the Committee is more determined to bring inflation back under control... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary’s MPC keep the bond market rally going? Hungary’s central bank has started two new policies this week aimed at bringing down bond yields, including the first QE programme in an emerging market. But there are reasons to think that the impact... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press conference highlighted that a hawkish faction exists on the Council. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be larger than most expect The Romanian MPC’s hawkish post-meeting press statement, which followed the decision to hike the policy interest rate earlier today, supports our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EC triggers Article 7 against Poland: what next? The decision by the European Commission to trigger an Article 7 procedure against Poland is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy in the short-term. Poland’s structural fund inflows can’t be... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC still dovish, but tide may be slowly turning The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary continued to strike an extremely dovish tone but, reading between the lines, it does seem that the rhetoric is gradually starting to shift... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to rise in 2018 EM inflation was steady between October and November, but the big picture is that it is up from the multi-year trough reached in the summer and will continue to rise over the course of 2018. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates to be lowered further than markets expect The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bp today caught the market (and ourselves) by surprise but the scale of the cut, as well as the tone of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rate hike fails to convince markets The Turkish central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller hike in its late liquidity rate today than markets had anticipated seems to reflect political pressure not to tighten policy substantially. The... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities are mounting (again) The sheer pace of annual GDP growth in Turkey in Q3 was flattered by base effects, but a closer look at the data shows worrying signs that strong growth has contributed to the recent jump in inflation... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE not yet overheating, but risks are building The sheer pace of GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe in Q3 has raised a few eyebrows. For now, there are few signs that economies in the region are overheating. But we are becoming... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
