Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in CEE inflation? The recent drop in inflation across Central Europe has caught ourselves and most other analysts off-guard. But a closer look into the data suggests that the weakness of inflation has been due largely... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The lira’s fall and what it means for inflation and rates The fall in the Turkish lira seen in the past few weeks doesn’t look large enough (yet) to prevent inflation from easing later in the year and to prompt a monetary policy response, not least given... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: growing risk that policy will be kept too loose A rise in interbank rates and weaker net wage growth appear to lie behind the Romanian MPC’s surprise decision to keep its policy interest rate on hold today. We still think that the tightening cycle... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish stance of Hungary’s MPC missing the bigger picture The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary continued to strike a dovish tone which, given the recent run of weak inflation data, isn’t a surprise. But the softness of inflation has been... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Fidesz to face tougher economic challenges in third term The ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition looks set to win another majority at the forthcoming Hungarian legislative elections, but after enjoying a period of strong GDP growth and low inflation in its current... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle has much further to run Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina gave little away at today’s post-meeting press conference about the future path for interest rates, but her overall tone suggests that there’s scope for... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira highlights Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has steadied in recent days, but the sharp decline seen earlier this month has reinforced concerns about the risks posed by the widening current account deficit. If the government... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions threat The fall in Russia’s external liabilities over the past few years has reduced the extent to which its economy might be adversely affected by the imposition of additional financial sanctions. By the... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0: what to look out for Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in yesterday’s presidential election has barely caused a ripple in local markets. The focus will now turn to the appointment of a new cabinet, which may provide... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Warning signs start to flash in Turkey’s economy The sheer pace of growth in Turkey looks increasingly like a cause for concern and there is mounting evidence that the economy is now overheating. Previous such episodes of overheating have been... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about Polish fiscal policy? Fiscal policy in Poland is set to be loosened further this year, which is one reason why economic growth is likely to remain strong. There aren’t any imminent concerns about the health of the public... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: early signs that strong demand is leaking into imports Q4 GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) confirmed that last year’s pick-up in regional growth was driven by an improvement in consumer spending and investment. However... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC still dovish, but rate hikes not too far away Governor Glapinski struck a dovish tone in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting. However, we think that inflation will rise faster than the central bank anticipates over the coming... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s trade deficit signals a revival of past vulnerabilities The sharp widening of Turkey’s trade deficit in the last few months is a reflection of very strong domestic demand, which has sucked in imports. But the deficit is now approaching levels that, in the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0 unlikely to step up to the economic challenge President Putin’s State of the Nation address provided the first signs of his economic goals for his next term. On the face of it, it looks like Putin promised looser fiscal policy, but we think there... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
