Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s public finances: the last pillar to crumble President Erdogan’s growing influence over monetary policy leaves the public finances as the last remaining strong point of Turkey’s economy. But the budget position has deteriorated in recent years... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC: further hints that tightening is on the cards The Hungarian MPC’s post-meeting communications reinforced the message that the MPC is inching towards a tightening cycle. For our part, we think inflation is likely to rise further than most think... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank bows to Erdogan The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.75%, when most had expected at least a 100bp hike, suggests that President Erdogan is already using his strengthened... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers are the only doves left in town Poland’s MPC bucked the regional trend today by retaining its ultra-dovish stance. However, we think that Polish policymakers will soon start to follow their neighbours. Inflation is likely to rise... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian central bank tightening policy via the backdoor Although the National Bank of Romania left its key policy rate unchanged today, the Bank is using open market operations to tighten monetary conditions. We think that policymakers will return to... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkish inflation spiralling out of control? Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected consumer price figures from Turkey provides further evidence that falls in the lira are feeding through into higher inflation more quickly and to a greater extent... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of Russia’s data revisions? The upwards revisions to Russia’s industrial production figures have raised concerns about the quality of the data but, based on the figures released so far, the new series does seem to reflect... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: More tightening in 2018 & 2019 The statement and press conference following today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the Council resumed its tightening cycle – were on the hawkish side, supporting our view that further rate hikes are... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the ECB affect CEE? The ECB’s ‘tapering’ of its asset purchases later this year and probable rate hikes in 2019 are unlikely to have much economic or financial market impact in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But, at... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to watch for after the Erdogan-AKP victory Victories for President Erdogan and his AKP-led alliance in Turkey’s elections have been welcomed by financial markets, but history suggests that this rally will be short-lived, particularly if Mr... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing era of ultra-loose policy to an end The post-meeting communications following today’s Hungarian MPC meeting offered some strong hints that the recent era of ultra-loose monetary policy is in its final days. We think that unconventional... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Turkey forecasts We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle Govenor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments at today’s post-meeting press conference are likely to reinforce views in the markets that the central bank’s easing cycle is at an end. For our part, we think... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia’s demographic squeeze (finally) being tackled? The announcement that Russia’s Cabinet plans to raise the retirement age is a step in the right direction. While there are question marks about whether it will be implemented in full, it could stop... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC needs to grab the bull by the horns Romania’s economy is overheating and, unless monetary policy is tightened markedly in the months ahead, a nastier adjustment and more abrupt slowdown in GDP growth lies in wait.Romania’s economy is... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
