Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five reasons why Poland will shine Having emerged from the global financial crisis in surprisingly robust health, Poland’s economy slowed sharply in 2012-13. Nonetheless, growth has started to pick up more recently and, as we explain... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why Russia needs to reform The need for economic reform in Russia is now widely accepted. However, a key point that is often overlooked is that a comprehensive programme of reform that takes in a wide range of different areas... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey flirting with recession? It’s too soon to fully gauge what impact the recent financial market turmoil and sharp rise in interest rates might have on Turkish growth. But at first glance, there seems to be a real risk that the... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Eastern Europe: towards a Goldilocks era? We have been among the most pessimistic forecasters on Emerging Europe over the past five years and the as yet unresolved debt problems in the euro-zone continue to cast a long shadow over the outlook... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: towards a sweet spot of faster growth and low inflation The severity of the slowdown in the Polish economy over the past 18 months took commentators and policymakers by surprise. The good news is that the slowdown appears to have been largely cyclical in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkish savings need to rise The fall in the lira and the sharp rise in bond yields over the past month have cast the spotlight back onto Turkey’s persistent current account deficit and dependency on foreign capital inflows. At... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Emerging Europe doomed to lag behind? There are encouraging signs that the slowdown in Emerging Europe has bottomed out in recent months and we think growth should strengthen over the second half of this year. The recovery will remain... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: a new era of weaker growth Following a decade of rapid growth, we think that the Russian economy is entering a new phase where much weaker growth becomes the norm. We believe the economy is unlikely to grow by much more than 2... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia, Gazprom and the shale revolution The development of shale gas in Europe is unlikely to have a significant impact on Russia’s energy exports over the next couple of years. But in time, it could prove to be the final nail in the coffin... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Hungary's new Bank governor The decision to nominate Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy to become Hungary’s new central bank governor is another blow to the Bank’s independence and is likely to result in further interest rate cuts... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's employment puzzle Rising employment has been one of the few bright spots for the recession-stricken Hungarian economy. But this merely reflects the weakness (indeed absence) of labour productivity growth. And as long... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Bulgaria's lost decade The Bulgarian economy is in the middle of a lost decade. A lack of competitiveness against the backdrop of a fixed exchange rate, coupled with the country’s close proximity to the euro-zone’s weakest... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Outlook for the Turkish lira still clouded by external risks Concerns are mounting that Turkey will be faced with a fresh wave of “hot” capital inflows. As it happens, we don’t think this is a credible threat – we expect a fresh escalation of the euro-crisis to... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia budget plans: still banking on high oil prices Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Ukraine: walking a tightrope Ukraine’s large external financing requirement and its heavy dependency on industrial exports to Western Europe make it among the most vulnerable countries in Emerging Europe to a re-escalation of the... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's austerity without growth isn’t working The raft of amendments to Hungary’s 2013 budget announced late last week contained not only fresh austerity measures, but also amended contentious policies that had previously been an obstacle to an... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
