Emerging Europe Economics Focus Bulgaria's lost decade The Bulgarian economy is in the middle of a lost decade. A lack of competitiveness against the backdrop of a fixed exchange rate, coupled with the country’s close proximity to the euro-zone’s weakest... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Outlook for the Turkish lira still clouded by external risks Concerns are mounting that Turkey will be faced with a fresh wave of “hot” capital inflows. As it happens, we don’t think this is a credible threat – we expect a fresh escalation of the euro-crisis to... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia budget plans: still banking on high oil prices Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Ukraine: walking a tightrope Ukraine’s large external financing requirement and its heavy dependency on industrial exports to Western Europe make it among the most vulnerable countries in Emerging Europe to a re-escalation of the... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's austerity without growth isn’t working The raft of amendments to Hungary’s 2013 budget announced late last week contained not only fresh austerity measures, but also amended contentious policies that had previously been an obstacle to an... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Czech National Bank not yet out of options The Czech National Bank is likely to cut interest rates to a fresh record low later this week. But it is quickly running out of room for conventional policy responses to lift the economy out of... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The hidden risk of rising Turkish bank debt Although Turkey’s current account deficit has started to narrow, short-term external debt – particularly in the banking sector – has risen sharply over the past couple of years. As such, Turkey... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Playing the long game We are among the most bearish forecasters on the near-term prospects for Emerging Europe and expect the region to underperform the rest of the emerging world over the next couple of years. But looking... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Drop in Polish savings rate points to consumer slowdown The strength of Polish consumer spending over the past couple of years has only been made possible by a run-down in the household savings rate. But with the savings rate now at a record low and real... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s dwindling surpluses: causes and consequences Russia is unlikely to run large current account surpluses for much longer. But while her days as a ‘super saver’ nation look numbered, we are equally sceptical of Russia’s ability to sustain large... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Hungary will opt for default We suspect that Hungary will ultimately turn to some form of default as a way out of its current debt problems. The alternative is further austerity – and while we expect Hungary to pursue this path... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Instability to define Putin’s third term in office The widespread assumption among investors that Vladimir Putin’s decisive victory in yesterday’s presidential election will deliver stability to Russia’s economy and its financial markets seems... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The economic consequences of Russia's unrest The eruption of anti-government protests in Russia has come at a time of growing strains in the country’s consumption-led growth model. But while hopes for reform are rising, the paradox facing... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia's new oil tax: radical reform or damp squib? The relative stagnation in Russian oil production over the past few years has long been a concern for policymakers. However, it seems unlikely that the new, more favourable, tax regime for Russian oil... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read