Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the... 13th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from the next Czech government The Czech parliamentary election that kicks off on Friday looks to be one of the most unpredictable for some time. A victory for the incumbent ANO party would continue the recent trend of loose fiscal... 6th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Israel’s vaccine success to drive strong recovery Israel has been the world leader in the vaccination race and the early evidence is that the rapid re-opening of the economy has driven a strong rebound in activity, particularly in services sectors... 22nd April 2021 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central Europe, the pandemic and the inflation outlook The pandemic hasn’t had a major disinflationary effect in Central Europe and the region is in what we think will turn out to be a prolonged period of above-target inflation. But how this affects... 18th February 2021 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia The neutral interest rate has become one of the hot topics in Russian monetary policy over the past year and the downward revision to the central bank’s estimate of the neutral rate in July marks the... 26th August 2020 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s easing cycle entering new waters Russia’s central bank has lowered its policy rate to a post-Soviet low during the current crisis and, with the economy likely to recover slowly and inflation set to remain subdued, further monetary... 16th July 2020 · 21 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin’s political shake-up: the economic consequences This Focus looks at the economic implications of the recent political shake-up in Russia. We begin with an overview of the political developments, then explain what they mean for economic policymaking... 29th January 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s recovery rests on shaky foundations Policy loosening will drive a stronger recovery in Turkey’s economy than most expect this year, but this is likely to come at the cost of higher inflation, a widening current account deficit and falls... 21st January 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment The recent strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will probably continue for a few more years as fiscal and monetary policy remain loose. But this is likely to cause some of the... 28th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Law and Justice’s next term The Polish Law and Justice Party’s second term in power is likely to be much less impressive than its first, marked by slower economic growth, higher inflation and a poor financial market performance. 14th October 2019 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s banks: why the next crisis will be worse Turkey’s banks came through last year’s currency crisis without suffering the severe problems that many had feared. But credit growth will probably stay weak, holding back the economic recovery... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Rising inflation won’t prompt interest rate hikes Polish inflation is likely to rise over the coming quarters, but we don’t think that will prompt a policy response. With growth set to slow next year and the ECB likely to relaunch QE, we expect that... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s at stake in Ukraine’s presidential election? Ukraine’s presidential election this Sunday is set to be a close race but, whoever ultimately wins, it looks like the recent shift away from orthodox policymaking will continue. Dollar bond spreads... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia and the sanctions threat Developments in the US Senate indicate that sanctions on Russia are likely to tighten in the coming months. Historically, the introduction (or threat) of sanctions has tended to result in a long... 14th February 2019 · 10 mins read