Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia unlikely to remain a 'super saver' for very long We expect the current account surpluses of most of the world’s ‘super savers’ to fall only gradually over the next few years. Russia, however, is the exception. If oil prices drop back to $60pb over... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central Europe: the fiscal squeeze is here 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkey must save its way to sustainable growth Turkey’s medium-term growth prospects are just about the best in Emerging Europe. But realising the economy’s full potential will require raising domestic savings. If the authorities can achieve this... 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey stays on course to outperform The Turkish economy is currently undergoing a rapid rebound, and its near-term outlook is the brightest in Emerging Europe. We expect GDP to grow by 6.5% this year, and while the recovery is likely to... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Eastern European currencies buck a weaker euro? We expect currencies across most of Emerging Europe to weaken further against both the euro and US dollar over the next year or so. The Romanian leu looks likely to be the worst performer, while the... 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What can Czech policymakers do about the koruna? Attempts by Czech policymakers to stem the recent rise in the koruna may have some effect at the margin, but we doubt that they will do much to fundamentally alter the value of the currency. In the... 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will Russia be Europe’s leader or laggard? Despite being richer than the rest of the so-called BRICs, there is still plenty of scope for Russia to undergo a period of rapid catch-up growth and it may yet overtake Germany as Europe’s largest... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Spring elections to spotlight fiscal frailties Forthcoming elections in Hungary and the Czech Republic are likely to spotlight fiscal frailties in both countries. As ever, the risks remain greatest in Hungary. But the likelihood of a weak... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the Russian recovery built to last? A combination of a massive fiscal stimulus and a boost from the inventory cycle should ensure that the Russian economy grows at annual rates in excess of 6% during the first half of this year. But the... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Croatia’s recovery set to disappoint The worst of the downturn in Croatia may have passed but the economy is still facing an uphill struggle. We expect GDP to grow by just 0.5% this year and by 2.0% in 2011, compared to average annual... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Three challenges facing emerging markets in 2010 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Ukraine: At a crossroads We estimate that Ukraine needs a further $7.5bn in external financing assistance next year. But with the outcome of January’s Presidential elections still uncertain, the source of this funding is not... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Latvia’s Swan Song Although the severe recession in Latvia has caused the current account to swing back into surplus, the rebalancing of the economy is not complete. We think the real exchange rate still needs to fall... 2nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will deficit financing trigger a surge in Russian inflation? There are good reasons to think that monetisation of Russia’s budget deficit will not necessarily lead directly to a pick-up in inflation. But it adds to the downside risks facing the ruble. We expect... 4th September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Fiscal mess blots the outlook We estimate that limits on public debt set out in the Polish constitution will force the government to tighten fiscal policy by around 2.5% of GDP next year. What’s more, a further fiscal tightening... 21st August 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary: a step in the right direction, but more pain to come While the latest attempt at fiscal reform in Hungary is impressive given the dire economic backdrop, it is unlikely to prevent the country from turning to the IMF for additional funding next year... 15th June 2009 · 1 min read
