Emerging Europe Economics Focus A chill wind blows east We expect the Emerging European economy to shrink by 3% this year, with no meaningful recovery until 2011. What’s more, further IMF bailouts look likely over the coming months as a number of the... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A grim year ahead for Emerging Europe's banks Rising default rates, a fragile funding structure and widespread currency mismatches mean that banks in Emerging Europe face a grim 2009. Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania and Estonia may all be forced to... 23rd January 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and... 19th January 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will recession in Eastern Europe bring down banks in the West Swedish and Austrian banks look most exposed to the impending recession in parts of Emerging Europe. But lending to the region still accounts for a relatively small share of total bank assets in both... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus ‘Super Deficit’ countries in recession in 2009 Huge current account deficits across Emerging Europe mean that Hungary and Ukraine are unlikely to be the only countries in the region to call on the IMF for emergency funding. As a period of painful... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will falling oil prices halt Russia's boom? We now expect real GDP growth in Russia to slow to 5% next year. But contrary to popular belief, this will not be driven by a fall in oil prices, which we now expect to fall to around $70pb over the... 10th October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Growth clouds start to gather Emerging Europe looks set to expand at its slowest pace since the 2001-02 Turkish financial crisis next year, as the downturn in the euro-zone gathers pace and the external financing environment... 5th September 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Have record oil prices hit Russian manufacturing? Economic theory suggests that a booming energy sector can often cause a slump in manufacturing output. In Russia’s case, the evidence from recent years is mixed. But even if oil prices do continue to... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania: a 21st century manufacturing hub? Romania has the potential to become a regional manufacturing hub, but resistance to reform is likely to prevent it from fulfilling its true potential. Accordingly, a much-needed rebalancing of the... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the improvement in the Czech public finances sustainable? The remarkable improvement in the Czech public finances since the early part of this decade is unlikely to be sustained over the next couple of years. In fact, we think that the fiscal deficit could... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How strong are Emerging Europe's banks? We do not expect Emerging Europe to suffer a major banking crisis despite the recent collapse of major Western institutions such as Bear Stearns and Northern Rock. But while there is scope for the... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: How to tame double-digit inflation Russian inflation has returned with a vengeance. As a result, the Central Bank (CBR) already looks certain to miss its end-year target of 8.5%. But the response of policymakers will be dictated by... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Slovakia: kicking out the koruna We expect Slovakia to be given the go-ahead to join the euro-zone from January next year, despite concerns over mounting medium-term inflationary pressures. This should give a renewed impetus to... 26th February 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will Russian equities buck the global trend? There a good reasons to expect the Russian equity market to boom this year, despite wider fears that global equity markets will continue to struggle against a backdrop of slower growth in the world... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Emerging Europe weather a global slowdown? Emerging Europe looks well placed to weather a global economic slowdown in 2008. But there are significant risks to the outlook and it would be complacent to assume that the region can sail through a... 8th January 2008 · 1 min read