Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Russia doomed? It’s widely acknowledged by now that the Russian economy is set for a deep recession this year and we think a fall in output of around 5% is likely. This would be similar in scale to the contraction... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: slowdown in consumer spending is here to stay One of the most striking aspects of the recent slowdown in the Russian economy is that the previously resilient consumer sector has weakened sharply. And while this may in part be a result of... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus 25 years on from the “Fall of the Wall” The fall of the Berlin Wall marked the start of the transition from central planning to market-based economies in Central and Eastern Europe, which in turn paved the way for a sharp rise in prosperity... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five challenges for Romania’s next president Victor Ponta looks set to win the presidential election in Romania on Sunday at a time when the economy is being buffeted by renewed weakness in key euro-zone trading partners. The economic outlook... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkish inflation won’t fall back as far as the CBRT expects Turkish policymakers have argued that the recent rise in inflation is a temporary phenomenon and this, in turn, has fuelled speculation in the markets that interest rates will be cut further. However... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Making sense of Hungary’s new policy rate The National Bank of Hungary is due to introduce a new benchmark monetary policy instrument tomorrow. While this is unlikely to have any impact on domestic monetary conditions, policymakers have... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central and Eastern Europe: competitive again The pre-crisis boom years in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) led to an erosion of external competitiveness which is one reason why the recovery from the 2008-09 crisis has been so sluggish. But... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The Ukraine crisis and Russia: five key questions With Russia facing further sanctions from the West over its alleged involvement in the turmoil in the east of Ukraine, in this Focus we answer five key questions about the potential economic and... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five reasons why Poland will shine Having emerged from the global financial crisis in surprisingly robust health, Poland’s economy slowed sharply in 2012-13. Nonetheless, growth has started to pick up more recently and, as we explain... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why Russia needs to reform The need for economic reform in Russia is now widely accepted. However, a key point that is often overlooked is that a comprehensive programme of reform that takes in a wide range of different areas... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey flirting with recession? It’s too soon to fully gauge what impact the recent financial market turmoil and sharp rise in interest rates might have on Turkish growth. But at first glance, there seems to be a real risk that the... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Eastern Europe: towards a Goldilocks era? We have been among the most pessimistic forecasters on Emerging Europe over the past five years and the as yet unresolved debt problems in the euro-zone continue to cast a long shadow over the outlook... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: towards a sweet spot of faster growth and low inflation The severity of the slowdown in the Polish economy over the past 18 months took commentators and policymakers by surprise. The good news is that the slowdown appears to have been largely cyclical in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkish savings need to rise The fall in the lira and the sharp rise in bond yields over the past month have cast the spotlight back onto Turkey’s persistent current account deficit and dependency on foreign capital inflows. At... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Emerging Europe doomed to lag behind? There are encouraging signs that the slowdown in Emerging Europe has bottomed out in recent months and we think growth should strengthen over the second half of this year. The recovery will remain... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
