Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: defying gravity…for now After a period of relative calm, growing political tensions have once again led to a deterioration in sentiment towards Turkey. As it happens, we think the country’s growth prospects over the next 6-9... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Has CEE exhausted its spare capacity? Central and Eastern Europe suffered an unusually deep downturn during the global financial crisis, which led to a large rise in underutilised capital and labour. As demand strengthened, firms could... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s slow burning fiscal problem Despite a sharp fall in energy revenues, there is no imminent risk of a fiscal crisis in Russia. Accordingly, we don’t share the view that the government needs to tighten policy immediately; indeed... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we fear a shift to populism in Poland? Rising support for the opposition Law and Justice party ahead of Poland’s parliamentary election on 25th October has raised concerns about a move towards more populist policymaking. We think that any... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why have Turkish exports performed so badly? The weakness of Turkish exports over the first half of this year can in part be pinned on temporary factors including bad weather, strikes in the automobile sector and problems in major trading... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Emerging Europe: Crisis or recovery? The Greek crisis has cast a dark cloud over the outlook for Emerging Europe, but as we explain in this Focus, while “Grexit” is a risk for a few countries, it doesn’t present the same threat that it... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: potential outcomes and market implications Fears ahead of Turkey’s parliamentary election on 7th June have centred on the risk of a dominant and increasingly authoritarian AK Party under President Erdogan , but in another twist to the plot the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the worst really over for Russia? The slump in activity data for April put an end to hopes raised in some parts of the government (and markets) that the worst is over for the Russian economy. The steep falls in output are likely to be... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Brightening outlook for Central European consumer markets Following a torrid few years after the global financial crisis, Central European consumer spending has started to recover gradually over the last eighteen months and there are reasons to expect this... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Three scenarios for Turkey after the election Turkish financial markets are becoming increasingly worried about what lies in store after June’s parliamentary election, with fears focusing on the risk of rising authoritarianism under President... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Russia doomed? It’s widely acknowledged by now that the Russian economy is set for a deep recession this year and we think a fall in output of around 5% is likely. This would be similar in scale to the contraction... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: slowdown in consumer spending is here to stay One of the most striking aspects of the recent slowdown in the Russian economy is that the previously resilient consumer sector has weakened sharply. And while this may in part be a result of... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus 25 years on from the “Fall of the Wall” The fall of the Berlin Wall marked the start of the transition from central planning to market-based economies in Central and Eastern Europe, which in turn paved the way for a sharp rise in prosperity... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five challenges for Romania’s next president Victor Ponta looks set to win the presidential election in Romania on Sunday at a time when the economy is being buffeted by renewed weakness in key euro-zone trading partners. The economic outlook... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read