Emerging Europe Economics Focus What next for Russia’s economy? Russia’s recent recession has opened up a sizeable output gap, one consequence of which is that GDP growth in the next couple of years could be a little stronger than most expect. However, the economy... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey really now a high-investment economy? The large upwards revisions to Turkey’s investment rate don’t mean the economy’s growth prospects are now much stronger. The changes mainly appear to reflect the country’s residential property boom... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia The volatility in oil prices over the past couple of months has prompted clients to ask us how higher and lower oil prices could affect the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Focus, we use several... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: defying gravity…for now After a period of relative calm, growing political tensions have once again led to a deterioration in sentiment towards Turkey. As it happens, we think the country’s growth prospects over the next 6-9... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Has CEE exhausted its spare capacity? Central and Eastern Europe suffered an unusually deep downturn during the global financial crisis, which led to a large rise in underutilised capital and labour. As demand strengthened, firms could... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s slow burning fiscal problem Despite a sharp fall in energy revenues, there is no imminent risk of a fiscal crisis in Russia. Accordingly, we don’t share the view that the government needs to tighten policy immediately; indeed... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we fear a shift to populism in Poland? Rising support for the opposition Law and Justice party ahead of Poland’s parliamentary election on 25th October has raised concerns about a move towards more populist policymaking. We think that any... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why have Turkish exports performed so badly? The weakness of Turkish exports over the first half of this year can in part be pinned on temporary factors including bad weather, strikes in the automobile sector and problems in major trading... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Emerging Europe: Crisis or recovery? The Greek crisis has cast a dark cloud over the outlook for Emerging Europe, but as we explain in this Focus, while “Grexit” is a risk for a few countries, it doesn’t present the same threat that it... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: potential outcomes and market implications Fears ahead of Turkey’s parliamentary election on 7th June have centred on the risk of a dominant and increasingly authoritarian AK Party under President Erdogan , but in another twist to the plot the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the worst really over for Russia? The slump in activity data for April put an end to hopes raised in some parts of the government (and markets) that the worst is over for the Russian economy. The steep falls in output are likely to be... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Brightening outlook for Central European consumer markets Following a torrid few years after the global financial crisis, Central European consumer spending has started to recover gradually over the last eighteen months and there are reasons to expect this... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Three scenarios for Turkey after the election Turkish financial markets are becoming increasingly worried about what lies in store after June’s parliamentary election, with fears focusing on the risk of rising authoritarianism under President... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
