Emerging Europe Economics Focus An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom In this Focus, we highlight the scale of Turkey’s credit boom and warn that the build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is more of a concern than most acknowledge. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we trust Turkey’s GDP data? The argument made recently that Turkey’s GDP data are being manipulated by the authorities and that the recent rapid growth rates aren’t plausible doesn’t seem to square with other available evidence... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on Russia’s new fiscal rule In this Focus, we answer five key questions on Russia’s recently-approved fiscal rule, and explain what it means for the government’s deficit, debt and oil funds. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is this as good as it gets? We suspect that economic growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking in this cycle. Growth in Russia is likely to accelerate further over the course of 2017-18, but this will be more than offset by... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack One important consequence of the recent period of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe is that economies are now running at close to full employment. We expect growth to remain robust over the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia entering an era of low inflation The decline in Russian inflation has further to run and we think it will fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. The central bank has adopted an extremely hawkish posture, but this... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What next for Russia’s economy? Russia’s recent recession has opened up a sizeable output gap, one consequence of which is that GDP growth in the next couple of years could be a little stronger than most expect. However, the economy... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey really now a high-investment economy? The large upwards revisions to Turkey’s investment rate don’t mean the economy’s growth prospects are now much stronger. The changes mainly appear to reflect the country’s residential property boom... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia The volatility in oil prices over the past couple of months has prompted clients to ask us how higher and lower oil prices could affect the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Focus, we use several... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: defying gravity…for now After a period of relative calm, growing political tensions have once again led to a deterioration in sentiment towards Turkey. As it happens, we think the country’s growth prospects over the next 6-9... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Has CEE exhausted its spare capacity? Central and Eastern Europe suffered an unusually deep downturn during the global financial crisis, which led to a large rise in underutilised capital and labour. As demand strengthened, firms could... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s slow burning fiscal problem Despite a sharp fall in energy revenues, there is no imminent risk of a fiscal crisis in Russia. Accordingly, we don’t share the view that the government needs to tighten policy immediately; indeed... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
