Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will falling oil prices halt Russia's boom? We now expect real GDP growth in Russia to slow to 5% next year. But contrary to popular belief, this will not be driven by a fall in oil prices, which we now expect to fall to around $70pb over the... 10th October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Growth clouds start to gather Emerging Europe looks set to expand at its slowest pace since the 2001-02 Turkish financial crisis next year, as the downturn in the euro-zone gathers pace and the external financing environment... 5th September 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Have record oil prices hit Russian manufacturing? Economic theory suggests that a booming energy sector can often cause a slump in manufacturing output. In Russia’s case, the evidence from recent years is mixed. But even if oil prices do continue to... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania: a 21st century manufacturing hub? Romania has the potential to become a regional manufacturing hub, but resistance to reform is likely to prevent it from fulfilling its true potential. Accordingly, a much-needed rebalancing of the... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the improvement in the Czech public finances sustainable? The remarkable improvement in the Czech public finances since the early part of this decade is unlikely to be sustained over the next couple of years. In fact, we think that the fiscal deficit could... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How strong are Emerging Europe's banks? We do not expect Emerging Europe to suffer a major banking crisis despite the recent collapse of major Western institutions such as Bear Stearns and Northern Rock. But while there is scope for the... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: How to tame double-digit inflation Russian inflation has returned with a vengeance. As a result, the Central Bank (CBR) already looks certain to miss its end-year target of 8.5%. But the response of policymakers will be dictated by... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Slovakia: kicking out the koruna We expect Slovakia to be given the go-ahead to join the euro-zone from January next year, despite concerns over mounting medium-term inflationary pressures. This should give a renewed impetus to... 26th February 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will Russian equities buck the global trend? There a good reasons to expect the Russian equity market to boom this year, despite wider fears that global equity markets will continue to struggle against a backdrop of slower growth in the world... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Emerging Europe weather a global slowdown? Emerging Europe looks well placed to weather a global economic slowdown in 2008. But there are significant risks to the outlook and it would be complacent to assume that the region can sail through a... 8th January 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: What Next After Putin? This weekend’s parliamentary elections underlined that while President Putin will hand over the keys to his Presidential residence next March, he will retain the reins of power. For the economy this... 4th December 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What next after the Baltic and Balkan party? The Baltics and parts of the Balkans run the risk of experiencing a nasty end to a recent period of very strong growth. But while a soft landing remains our central scenario, a further dip in global... 21st November 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Self-sustaining growth in Emerging Europe? Although the medium-term growth fundamentals in Emerging Europe look good, the region has yet to reach a point where growth has become self-sustaining. In particular, economic prospects are still... 11th October 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An investor's guide to the Big Four Despite recent market volatility, we are upbeat about the growth prospects in Emerging Europe and its four largest economies – Russia, Turkey, Poland and Romania. Given the right policies, the Big... 21st August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: the end of a golden era? There is a strong possibility that this month’s parliamentary elections in Turkey will return a weaker government. If so, then GDP growth could slow to around 4.5% per annum over the medium-term... 4th July 2007 · 1 min read
